A few years ago I mentioned how much I enjoyed reading the book Badger Bars and Tavern Tales: An Illustrated History of Wisconsin Saloons by Bill Moen and Doug Davis. At the time, I received a note from Mr. Moen thanking me for my interest. It was one of those little connections that served to remind me again just how cool this whole internet thing can sometimes be.
The other day, I received another e-mail from Mr. Moen:
I couple years back we exchanged a few emails about my “Badger Bars” Wisconsin tavern book. Hey! I did another one. I’ve enjoyed your guys website in the past and your beer reviews, so I thought I’d leave you a complimentary copy out at the liquor store.
At the liquor store? I was puzzled for a moment, but then I realized that since Bill read the beer reviews he must be speaking of Glen Lake Wine and Spirits.
And sure enough, when I stopped by the store last Wednesday to stock up on wine, whisky, and beer for our Thanksgiving feast, I found a copy of Bill's latest work waiting for me.
I'll only had a chance to peruse a few pages so far, but, like the previous book on Wisconsin watering holes, it looks like it's going to be a fun read.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Friday, November 23, 2012
Beer of the Week (Vol. CLXIII)
Another edition of Beer of the Week sponsored as always by the frugal folks at Glen Lake Wine & Spirits who can help find the wine, whiskey, and beer to deliver the most bang for your hard earned buck.
Black Friday is almost over and hopefully none of you wasted your time getting caught up in the holiday shopping hype. Wake me up when they start offering Black Friday deals on things that really matter like beer.
Until then, we’ll just have to make do with the beer bargains in our midst. Like this week’s beer, Brooklyn Brewery’s Black Chocolate Stout
This is the famous Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout, our award-winning rendition of the Imperial Stout style, once made exclusively for Catherine the Great. We use three mashes to brew each batch of this beer, achieving a luscious deep dark chocolate flavor through a blend of specially roasted malts. We brew it every year for the winter season. It is delicious when newly bottled, but also ages beautifully for years.
$7.99 for a four-pack of 12oz bottles. Label is classy and luxurious with black and silver colors and a stylish font.
STYLE: Imperial Stout
ALCOHOL BY VOLUME: 10%
COLOR (0-2): Dark thick blackness. 2
AROMA (0-2): Toasted cocoa with a little vanilla. 2
HEAD (0-2): Tan color, moderate volume, tight bubbles. Laces the glace nicely. 2
TASTE (0-5): Roasted malts with plenty of delicious dark chocolate bitterness. Heat is well disguised by rich flavors. Mouthfeel is syrupy, thick, and a little oily. Heavy body makes it one to savor rather than slam. 4
AFTERTASTE (0-2): The warming glow is lasting. 2
OVERALL (0-6): Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout is a big beer with decadent tastes. It’s a luxury item, but with a bargain price. Unlike most of the crap that people cluelessly consume on Black Friday, this beer actually would be worth waiting for. 5
TOTAL SCORE (0-19): 17
Black Friday is almost over and hopefully none of you wasted your time getting caught up in the holiday shopping hype. Wake me up when they start offering Black Friday deals on things that really matter like beer.
Until then, we’ll just have to make do with the beer bargains in our midst. Like this week’s beer, Brooklyn Brewery’s Black Chocolate Stout
This is the famous Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout, our award-winning rendition of the Imperial Stout style, once made exclusively for Catherine the Great. We use three mashes to brew each batch of this beer, achieving a luscious deep dark chocolate flavor through a blend of specially roasted malts. We brew it every year for the winter season. It is delicious when newly bottled, but also ages beautifully for years.
$7.99 for a four-pack of 12oz bottles. Label is classy and luxurious with black and silver colors and a stylish font.
ALCOHOL BY VOLUME: 10%
COLOR (0-2): Dark thick blackness. 2
AROMA (0-2): Toasted cocoa with a little vanilla. 2
HEAD (0-2): Tan color, moderate volume, tight bubbles. Laces the glace nicely. 2
TASTE (0-5): Roasted malts with plenty of delicious dark chocolate bitterness. Heat is well disguised by rich flavors. Mouthfeel is syrupy, thick, and a little oily. Heavy body makes it one to savor rather than slam. 4
AFTERTASTE (0-2): The warming glow is lasting. 2
OVERALL (0-6): Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout is a big beer with decadent tastes. It’s a luxury item, but with a bargain price. Unlike most of the crap that people cluelessly consume on Black Friday, this beer actually would be worth waiting for. 5
TOTAL SCORE (0-19): 17
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Thanks for Thanksgiving
Melanie Kirkpatrick provides some interesting history on George Washington's Thanksgiving Proclamation in 1789:
In the end, the Thanksgiving resolution passed—the precise vote is not recorded—and the House appointed a committee. The resolution moved to the Senate, which passed it and added its own members to the committee.
The committee took the resolution to the president, and on Oct. 3 George Washington issued his now-famous Thanksgiving Proclamation. In it, he designated Thursday, Nov. 26, 1789 as "a day of public thanksgiving and prayer." He asked Americans to render their "sincere and humble thanks" to God for "his kind care and protection of the People of this Country."
It was his first presidential proclamation, and it was well heeded. According to the "Papers of George Washington," compiled by the University of Virginia, Thanksgiving Day was "widely celebrated throughout the nation." Newspapers around the country published the proclamation and announced plans for public functions in honor of the day. Religious services were held, and churches solicited donations for the poor. Washington himself sent $25 to a pastor in New York City, requesting that the funds be "applied towards relieving the poor of the Presbyterian Churches," in the words of his secretary.
Thanksgiving feasts in New England at the time of the nation's founding were similar to those today, says Charles Lyle, director of the Webb-Deane-Stevens Museum in Wethersfield, Conn. The museum recently hosted an 18th-century-style Thanksgiving dinner using recipes supplied by a local food historian, Paul Courchaine. Turkey and pumpkin pie were on the menu, along with venison pie, roast goose, roast pork, butternut squash, creamed onions, pottage of cabbage, onions and leeks, and Indian pudding, made from cornmeal and spices.
In a bow to contemporary tastes, several wines were served at the museum but not the one Americans were likely to have drunk in the 18th century—Madeira, a high-alcohol-content wine fortified with brandy. Before the Revolution, Madeira, which came from the Portuguese-owned Madeira Islands, was considered a patriotic beverage, since it was not subject to British taxation. It was Washington's favorite drink.
Washington was keenly aware of his role as a model for future presidents. He once remarked that "There is scarcely any part of my conduct which may not be hereafter drawn into precedent." That included his Thanksgiving Proclamation of 1789, which set the standard for Thanksgiving Proclamations by future presidents, a list that included James Madison, Abraham Lincoln, and then every president up to the present day.
The tradition begun by George Washington has survived without further controversy. Since the original debate in the House in September 1789, no member of Congress has complained that Thanksgiving proclamations are too European, a violation of the separation of church and state or, most especially, not what the American people want.
Today, it's hard to believe that the idea of a presidential Thanksgiving Proclamation could create controversy. We should be thankful that Washington and others of his era understood the importance it would have to Americans then and now.
Happy Thanksgiving.
In the end, the Thanksgiving resolution passed—the precise vote is not recorded—and the House appointed a committee. The resolution moved to the Senate, which passed it and added its own members to the committee.
The committee took the resolution to the president, and on Oct. 3 George Washington issued his now-famous Thanksgiving Proclamation. In it, he designated Thursday, Nov. 26, 1789 as "a day of public thanksgiving and prayer." He asked Americans to render their "sincere and humble thanks" to God for "his kind care and protection of the People of this Country."
It was his first presidential proclamation, and it was well heeded. According to the "Papers of George Washington," compiled by the University of Virginia, Thanksgiving Day was "widely celebrated throughout the nation." Newspapers around the country published the proclamation and announced plans for public functions in honor of the day. Religious services were held, and churches solicited donations for the poor. Washington himself sent $25 to a pastor in New York City, requesting that the funds be "applied towards relieving the poor of the Presbyterian Churches," in the words of his secretary.
Thanksgiving feasts in New England at the time of the nation's founding were similar to those today, says Charles Lyle, director of the Webb-Deane-Stevens Museum in Wethersfield, Conn. The museum recently hosted an 18th-century-style Thanksgiving dinner using recipes supplied by a local food historian, Paul Courchaine. Turkey and pumpkin pie were on the menu, along with venison pie, roast goose, roast pork, butternut squash, creamed onions, pottage of cabbage, onions and leeks, and Indian pudding, made from cornmeal and spices.
In a bow to contemporary tastes, several wines were served at the museum but not the one Americans were likely to have drunk in the 18th century—Madeira, a high-alcohol-content wine fortified with brandy. Before the Revolution, Madeira, which came from the Portuguese-owned Madeira Islands, was considered a patriotic beverage, since it was not subject to British taxation. It was Washington's favorite drink.
Washington was keenly aware of his role as a model for future presidents. He once remarked that "There is scarcely any part of my conduct which may not be hereafter drawn into precedent." That included his Thanksgiving Proclamation of 1789, which set the standard for Thanksgiving Proclamations by future presidents, a list that included James Madison, Abraham Lincoln, and then every president up to the present day.
The tradition begun by George Washington has survived without further controversy. Since the original debate in the House in September 1789, no member of Congress has complained that Thanksgiving proclamations are too European, a violation of the separation of church and state or, most especially, not what the American people want.
Today, it's hard to believe that the idea of a presidential Thanksgiving Proclamation could create controversy. We should be thankful that Washington and others of his era understood the importance it would have to Americans then and now.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
The Bums Lost
*The following is a special guest post from Mark Yost.*
Every college sports fan has those moments they’ll never forget. For Duke fans it’s Christian Laetner’s buzzer beater against Kentucky, for Midshipmen it’s the 2007 win over Notre Dame, and for Michigan fans it’s most any time they beat Ohio State. (This week will be particularly sweet if the Wolverines upset the Buckeyes’ perfect season.) For the sliver of us who still believe in quaint notions like academics and integrity, we will forever remember Stanford beating Oregon.
I don’t often engage in schadenfreude, but it was downright bliss to see the tears streaming down the faces of the Ducks faithful after Jordan Williamson, a psychology major from Austin, Texas, who loaded up on Advanced Placement classes to meet Stanford’s rigorous admission requirements, kicked the winning field goal in overtime. That’s because there are no two better examples of the forces of good and evil in college athletics today.
Despite the NCAA’s insistence that all these kids are students first and athletes second, at Stanford it’s actually true. According to the most recent NCAA figures, Stanford has a Graduation Success Rate of 90, meaning that only about 10% of the student-athletes who enroll there as freshmen end up not graduating. By comparison, Oregon’s GSR is 64, meaning that nearly 40% of its athletes never graduate. And I’m sure that figure factors in all the loopholes that the NCAA builds into the system to accommodate academically embarrassing programs like Oregon. A recent San Jose Mercury News study found that Stanford is No. 1 in terms of GPA (3.63) and SAT score (1176). Oregon’s numbers are middling at 2.94 and 969.
Those numbers are driven by the fact that most of the Stanford football players graduated from serious high schools where they earned as many academic honors as they did on-field accolades. There’s perhaps no better example of this than standout senior running back Stepfan Taylor. He’s African-American, which is significant because today’s college athletic culture preys on young black men in ways that would make antebellum plantation owners blush. Before coming to Palo Alto, Taylor, who ran for 161 yards Saturday night, earned all-district high school honors and a proclamation from his hometown mayor lauding his success on and off the field. He’s just the third back in Stanford history to rush for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons, and he did it while majoring in Stanford’s rigorous science, technology and society curriculum. Put simply, Taylor is one of the notable exceptions to the felons, drug dealers and domestic abusers who are regularly lauded as All-American heroes on college campuses across the country.
Now let’s look at Oregon. Starting quarterback Marcus Mariota majors in human physiology, running back Kenjon Barner is studying journalism, fellow backfielder De’Anthony Thomas Communication, and placekicker Alejandro Maldonado, who missed an OT field goal, sports marketing. Not exactly rocket science (or engineering).
Beyond its lack of academic rigor, Oregon is currently under investigation as a repeat violator of NCAA recruiting rules. The school was sanctioned back in 2004 for recruiting violations related to running back J.J. Arrington, who went on to play in the NFL and was arrested for fighting at a nightclub in North Carolina in 2008. Another highly touted Oregon recruit, Tyrece Gaines, was charged last month with first-degree burglary, fourth-degree assault, strangulation and interfering with making a police report in connection with a domestic violence incident outside Eugene. And last year, a carful of Oregon football players was pulled over for going 118 mph on I-5. When the arresting officer smelled marijuana and asked who had the weed, driver Cliff Harris said, “We smoked it all.” To their credit, Oregon booted him and the Philadelphia Eagles eventually cut him, but the point is: Gentlemen and scholars, these are not.
While this behavior is commonplace among elite athletes on campuses across the country, Oregon is unique for its Nike connection. Company founder Phil Knight was on the Oregon track team before he and Sonny Vaccaro came up with the payola scheme that has made apparel and sneakers a cash cow for nearly every D-I program in the country. Knight further debased the culture of college athletics when Oregon, official colors green and yellow, began wearing gangsta-inspired black uniforms The trend, which is all about selling more apparel, has since spread to other college campuses like the plague. It is, quite simply, further endorsement of the thug-like behavior of college athletes everywhere.
So, again, forgive me for celebrating Oregon’s misfortune. But as Jeffery Lebowski said to the Dude: “Condolences. The bums lost.” For once.
(Mark Yost is the author of Varsity Green: A Behind the Scenes Look at Culture and Corruption in College Athletics)
Every college sports fan has those moments they’ll never forget. For Duke fans it’s Christian Laetner’s buzzer beater against Kentucky, for Midshipmen it’s the 2007 win over Notre Dame, and for Michigan fans it’s most any time they beat Ohio State. (This week will be particularly sweet if the Wolverines upset the Buckeyes’ perfect season.) For the sliver of us who still believe in quaint notions like academics and integrity, we will forever remember Stanford beating Oregon.
I don’t often engage in schadenfreude, but it was downright bliss to see the tears streaming down the faces of the Ducks faithful after Jordan Williamson, a psychology major from Austin, Texas, who loaded up on Advanced Placement classes to meet Stanford’s rigorous admission requirements, kicked the winning field goal in overtime. That’s because there are no two better examples of the forces of good and evil in college athletics today.
Despite the NCAA’s insistence that all these kids are students first and athletes second, at Stanford it’s actually true. According to the most recent NCAA figures, Stanford has a Graduation Success Rate of 90, meaning that only about 10% of the student-athletes who enroll there as freshmen end up not graduating. By comparison, Oregon’s GSR is 64, meaning that nearly 40% of its athletes never graduate. And I’m sure that figure factors in all the loopholes that the NCAA builds into the system to accommodate academically embarrassing programs like Oregon. A recent San Jose Mercury News study found that Stanford is No. 1 in terms of GPA (3.63) and SAT score (1176). Oregon’s numbers are middling at 2.94 and 969.
Those numbers are driven by the fact that most of the Stanford football players graduated from serious high schools where they earned as many academic honors as they did on-field accolades. There’s perhaps no better example of this than standout senior running back Stepfan Taylor. He’s African-American, which is significant because today’s college athletic culture preys on young black men in ways that would make antebellum plantation owners blush. Before coming to Palo Alto, Taylor, who ran for 161 yards Saturday night, earned all-district high school honors and a proclamation from his hometown mayor lauding his success on and off the field. He’s just the third back in Stanford history to rush for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons, and he did it while majoring in Stanford’s rigorous science, technology and society curriculum. Put simply, Taylor is one of the notable exceptions to the felons, drug dealers and domestic abusers who are regularly lauded as All-American heroes on college campuses across the country.
Now let’s look at Oregon. Starting quarterback Marcus Mariota majors in human physiology, running back Kenjon Barner is studying journalism, fellow backfielder De’Anthony Thomas Communication, and placekicker Alejandro Maldonado, who missed an OT field goal, sports marketing. Not exactly rocket science (or engineering).
Beyond its lack of academic rigor, Oregon is currently under investigation as a repeat violator of NCAA recruiting rules. The school was sanctioned back in 2004 for recruiting violations related to running back J.J. Arrington, who went on to play in the NFL and was arrested for fighting at a nightclub in North Carolina in 2008. Another highly touted Oregon recruit, Tyrece Gaines, was charged last month with first-degree burglary, fourth-degree assault, strangulation and interfering with making a police report in connection with a domestic violence incident outside Eugene. And last year, a carful of Oregon football players was pulled over for going 118 mph on I-5. When the arresting officer smelled marijuana and asked who had the weed, driver Cliff Harris said, “We smoked it all.” To their credit, Oregon booted him and the Philadelphia Eagles eventually cut him, but the point is: Gentlemen and scholars, these are not.
While this behavior is commonplace among elite athletes on campuses across the country, Oregon is unique for its Nike connection. Company founder Phil Knight was on the Oregon track team before he and Sonny Vaccaro came up with the payola scheme that has made apparel and sneakers a cash cow for nearly every D-I program in the country. Knight further debased the culture of college athletics when Oregon, official colors green and yellow, began wearing gangsta-inspired black uniforms The trend, which is all about selling more apparel, has since spread to other college campuses like the plague. It is, quite simply, further endorsement of the thug-like behavior of college athletes everywhere.
So, again, forgive me for celebrating Oregon’s misfortune. But as Jeffery Lebowski said to the Dude: “Condolences. The bums lost.” For once.
(Mark Yost is the author of Varsity Green: A Behind the Scenes Look at Culture and Corruption in College Athletics)
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
An Enemy to Comfort and Enjoyment
Mark Twain on "moral statisticians":
I don't want any of your statistics; I took your whole batch and lit my pipe with it.
I hate your kind of people. You are always ciphering out how much a man's health is injured, and how much his intellect is impaired, and how many pitiful dollars and cents he wastes in the course of ninety-two years' indulgence in the fatal practice of smoking; and in the equally fatal practice of drinking coffee; and in playing billiards occasionally; and in taking a glass of wine at dinner, etc. etc. And you are always figuring out how many women have been burned to death because of the dangerous fashion of wearing expansive hoops, etc. etc. You never see more than one side of the question.
You are blind to the fact that most old men in America smoke and drink coffee, although, according to your theory, they ought to have died young...And you never try to find out how much solid comfort, relaxation, and enjoyment a man derives from smoking in the course of a lifetime (which is worth ten times the money he would save by letting it alone), nor the appalling aggregate of happiness lost in a lifetime by your kind of people from not smoking. Of course you can save money by denying yourself all those little vicious enjoyments for fifty years; but then what can you do with it? What use can you put it to? Money can't save your infinitesimal soul. All the use that money can be put to is to purchase comfort and enjoyment in this life; therefore, as you are an enemy to comfort and enjoyment where is the use of accumulating cash?
It won't do for you to say that you can use it to better purpose in furnishing a good table, and in charities, and in supporting tract societies, because you know yourself that you people who have no petty vices are never known to give away a cent, and that you stint yourselves so in the matter of food that you are always feeble and hungry...
What is the use of your saving money that is so utterly worthless to you? In a word, why don't you go off somewhere and die, and not be always trying to seduce people into becoming as ornery and unlovable as you are yourselves, by your villainous "moral statistics"?
That little tract was penned in 1893 and is still extremely relevant today.
I don't want any of your statistics; I took your whole batch and lit my pipe with it.
I hate your kind of people. You are always ciphering out how much a man's health is injured, and how much his intellect is impaired, and how many pitiful dollars and cents he wastes in the course of ninety-two years' indulgence in the fatal practice of smoking; and in the equally fatal practice of drinking coffee; and in playing billiards occasionally; and in taking a glass of wine at dinner, etc. etc. And you are always figuring out how many women have been burned to death because of the dangerous fashion of wearing expansive hoops, etc. etc. You never see more than one side of the question.
You are blind to the fact that most old men in America smoke and drink coffee, although, according to your theory, they ought to have died young...And you never try to find out how much solid comfort, relaxation, and enjoyment a man derives from smoking in the course of a lifetime (which is worth ten times the money he would save by letting it alone), nor the appalling aggregate of happiness lost in a lifetime by your kind of people from not smoking. Of course you can save money by denying yourself all those little vicious enjoyments for fifty years; but then what can you do with it? What use can you put it to? Money can't save your infinitesimal soul. All the use that money can be put to is to purchase comfort and enjoyment in this life; therefore, as you are an enemy to comfort and enjoyment where is the use of accumulating cash?
It won't do for you to say that you can use it to better purpose in furnishing a good table, and in charities, and in supporting tract societies, because you know yourself that you people who have no petty vices are never known to give away a cent, and that you stint yourselves so in the matter of food that you are always feeble and hungry...
What is the use of your saving money that is so utterly worthless to you? In a word, why don't you go off somewhere and die, and not be always trying to seduce people into becoming as ornery and unlovable as you are yourselves, by your villainous "moral statistics"?
That little tract was penned in 1893 and is still extremely relevant today.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
HWX LIVE with Michael Barone and John Thune
We're going LIVE with the HWX podcast at 11am central (approximately). Click the magic button below to hear it as it happens. Sen. John Thune, Michael Barone, John Hinderaker, and Brian Ward, together for the first time, four of the finest young rising minds in the conservative movement.
Update, can't get the widget to work. Go to Ricochet.com to hear it LIVE.
And Ricochet members, link to the chat room is here. Questions, comments, concerns, criticism, commentary about what you're hearing? That's the place to do it and have it reacted to in real time.
Please note, the technical capabilities of the LIVE podcast is still a work in progress. It's all going to work, you'll be able to hear it. But let's just say you might also get a chance to hear some hiccups and a little of the sausage getting made behind the scenes. (You may not have realized it, but John Hinderaker prepares a batch of his famous homemade pork jalapeno sizzlers during the taping of each and every show). We hope you enjoy!
Trout Swimming Upstream
Brian and I were having a disagreement about Nate Silver around the time of the election. I believed that Silver is a hack, a partisan hammer that sees every presidential election as the nail of a Democratic landslide. In 2008, reality happened to conform to his theory and he was hailed as a genius. In 2012, the electoral college pointed to a decisive Obama victory. However, the popular vote margin and the closeness of the race in battleground states like Florida and Virginia point to a more nuanced conclusion that Obama won a close election.
Brian's opinion is that Silver is a Renaissance Man and a Warrior Poet. Ok, that's not exactly his position. He argued that Silver was not only credible, but skilled. Politically, his skill is debatable due to the fact that he had access to insider statistical models in 2008. However Brian argued, and I think I'm fairly capturing his point this time, that Silver's writings on baseball have been shining examples of quality sabremetric analyses. Having never read Silver's take on baseball, I really didn't have a comeback, at least until now.
Nate Silver has weighed in on the American League MVP race and declared an Obama landslide. Actually, he has declared Anaheim Angels Outfielder Mike Trout more deserving of the award than the actual winner, Detroit Tiger's Outfielder Miguel Cabrera. I'm not impressed by this critique, and don't believe it is because I am a Luddite pagan without respect for the science of sabremetrics.
First of all, I know that Silver didn't likely write the headline in the linked piece, but I don't like the title, "The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P." If anything, Silver outlines a comparative case for Mike Trout. Miguel Cabrera was the first American League Triple Crown winner since 1967, with a batting average of .330, 44 home runs and 139 RBIs. He also boasted 109 runs scored, 205 hits, and an OPS (probably the most favored offensive sabremetric statistic) of .999. That is my case for Cabrera for M.V.P. You can prefer Mike Trout, but you must admit, Cabrera's numbers are strong. Additionally, Cabrera's Tigers won the American League pennant, which Trout watched on TV as his Angels missed the playoffs.
Before I get to Silver's critique, I'll compare the critical numbers. Trout batted .326, .004 points lower than Cabrera. He hit 30 home runs, 14 less than Cabrera and tied for 13th place in the American League. He drove in 83 runs, 56 behind Cabrera and good for 26th place in the league, behind three of his teammates on the Angels. He led the league in runs scored with 129, 20 ahead of second place Cabrera. He also had 182 hits, good for 9th place in the league and 23 behind Cabrera. Finally, his OPS was .963, .036 points behind Cabrera.
Silver's point's in Trout's favor are basically these, in order of my perception of their importance:
Silver next argues that Trout's defense is a strength to his team, while Cabrera's is a liability. I also cede this point. However, I believe Silver is reaching. He claims that corner outfielder Trout saved his team 11 runs, while Cabrera cost his team 10 runs. This is from a nebulous statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Unlike other sabremetric statistics such as OPS and WPA, I have no way to analyze whether UZR is accurate. I have real concerns that as a corner outfielder next to an above average center fielder in Torii Hunter, Trout's numbers are overstated. Still, this statistic is a black box.
I'd conclude that even if the UZR that Silver quotes true, this 21 run difference pales in comparison to the fact that Cabrera had 56 more RBIs. If you net this out, that leaves Cabrera ahead by 35 RBI's. It is a fact that Trout scored 20 more runs, so net of that Cabrera produced a net run total 15 ahead of Trout. This leads to Silver's next argument, that Trout played less games and played them in a more difficult ballpark.
If a guy starts the year in the minors, as Trout did, he is adding zero value to his team over that time period. Meanwhile, Cabrera was helping his team win games. You simply can't argue against that. As for the tougher stadium call, Silver bases this on the fact that Cabrera hit most of his home runs to power alleys and that Angel's stadium has deeper power alleys, so Cabrera would have hit less home runs were he to switch places with Trout. To which I say boo hoo. Cabrera's job is to produce runs, not to worry about where his home runs would have landed were he playing in a stadium 2000 miles away.
Silver says Trout's RBI's are understated because he leads off while Cabrera bats third. While true, that also enhances Trout's run total and depresses (in a relative sense) Cabrera's run total. I'd call that a wash.
Getting desperate, Silver turns to the phantom statistic of "clutch" hitting. This statistic has historically been used for such dishonest purposes as claiming that Alex Rodriguez isn't really a good player or that Reggie Jackson is the greatest player ever. Silver uses the real and quantifiable statistic of Win Probability Added to prove that Trout is a more valuable player. Silver gives a nice explanation of this statistic:
In fact, there are now systems, like Win Probability Added, that measure all aspects of clutch performance in a comprehensive way. They account not just for the number of runners on base and the number of outs, but also the game score and the inning. A grand slam when a team trails by three runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth turns a near-certain loss into a win, giving a player maximal credit by this system. A grand slam when a team already leads 7-0 gets little credit, since the game is already in hand.
Trout has a better WPA, with 5.28 games won to Cabrera's 4.81. Of course, by this statistic, Joey Votto was by far the best player in baseball last year, with a WPA of 6.05. Also, Cabrera had a much better WPA in 2011, with a WPA of 7.59. Unlike batting average or home runs, a hitter's WPA depends on a lot of lucky factors. In Silver's example above, the first hitter adds .95 to his WPA and the second adds .00 while they both hit grand slams. The volatility of this statistic makes it instructive, but not absolute. Unlike OPS, I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
Finally, Silver argues that the Angels were a better team, as they won 89 games to the Tigers 88. Again, boo hoo. The Tigers and Cabrera did what they needed to do (at least until the World Series began) and the Angels did not. Further, the Tigers wrapped up their division with a handful of games remaining and set their rotation, likely causing them to lose one or more games. I'd dismiss this claim out of hand.
I didn't even mention that no one has won baseball's Triple Crown in two generations. Cabrera faced pressures that no other player did due to his chase of this elusive goal, and he triumphed.
In conclusion, Mike Trout is a fantastic player, and would certainly be my number one draft pick if I get that spot in my 2013 fantasy baseball draft. But in 2013, Miguel Cabrera was clearly the most valuable player in the American League.
Brian's opinion is that Silver is a Renaissance Man and a Warrior Poet. Ok, that's not exactly his position. He argued that Silver was not only credible, but skilled. Politically, his skill is debatable due to the fact that he had access to insider statistical models in 2008. However Brian argued, and I think I'm fairly capturing his point this time, that Silver's writings on baseball have been shining examples of quality sabremetric analyses. Having never read Silver's take on baseball, I really didn't have a comeback, at least until now.
Nate Silver has weighed in on the American League MVP race and declared an Obama landslide. Actually, he has declared Anaheim Angels Outfielder Mike Trout more deserving of the award than the actual winner, Detroit Tiger's Outfielder Miguel Cabrera. I'm not impressed by this critique, and don't believe it is because I am a Luddite pagan without respect for the science of sabremetrics.
First of all, I know that Silver didn't likely write the headline in the linked piece, but I don't like the title, "The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P." If anything, Silver outlines a comparative case for Mike Trout. Miguel Cabrera was the first American League Triple Crown winner since 1967, with a batting average of .330, 44 home runs and 139 RBIs. He also boasted 109 runs scored, 205 hits, and an OPS (probably the most favored offensive sabremetric statistic) of .999. That is my case for Cabrera for M.V.P. You can prefer Mike Trout, but you must admit, Cabrera's numbers are strong. Additionally, Cabrera's Tigers won the American League pennant, which Trout watched on TV as his Angels missed the playoffs.
Before I get to Silver's critique, I'll compare the critical numbers. Trout batted .326, .004 points lower than Cabrera. He hit 30 home runs, 14 less than Cabrera and tied for 13th place in the American League. He drove in 83 runs, 56 behind Cabrera and good for 26th place in the league, behind three of his teammates on the Angels. He led the league in runs scored with 129, 20 ahead of second place Cabrera. He also had 182 hits, good for 9th place in the league and 23 behind Cabrera. Finally, his OPS was .963, .036 points behind Cabrera.
Silver's point's in Trout's favor are basically these, in order of my perception of their importance:
- Trout stole a lot more bases than Cabrera
- Trout was a better defensive player than Cabrera
- Trout's overall totals were impacted by the fact that he started 2012 in the minors and Trout's home ballpark is tougher on hitters than Cabrera's
- Trout's RBI numbers were depressed by his lead off spot in the batting order and Trout is actually a better hitter in "clutch" situations than Cabrera
- The Angels were a better team than the Tigers
Silver next argues that Trout's defense is a strength to his team, while Cabrera's is a liability. I also cede this point. However, I believe Silver is reaching. He claims that corner outfielder Trout saved his team 11 runs, while Cabrera cost his team 10 runs. This is from a nebulous statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Unlike other sabremetric statistics such as OPS and WPA, I have no way to analyze whether UZR is accurate. I have real concerns that as a corner outfielder next to an above average center fielder in Torii Hunter, Trout's numbers are overstated. Still, this statistic is a black box.
I'd conclude that even if the UZR that Silver quotes true, this 21 run difference pales in comparison to the fact that Cabrera had 56 more RBIs. If you net this out, that leaves Cabrera ahead by 35 RBI's. It is a fact that Trout scored 20 more runs, so net of that Cabrera produced a net run total 15 ahead of Trout. This leads to Silver's next argument, that Trout played less games and played them in a more difficult ballpark.
If a guy starts the year in the minors, as Trout did, he is adding zero value to his team over that time period. Meanwhile, Cabrera was helping his team win games. You simply can't argue against that. As for the tougher stadium call, Silver bases this on the fact that Cabrera hit most of his home runs to power alleys and that Angel's stadium has deeper power alleys, so Cabrera would have hit less home runs were he to switch places with Trout. To which I say boo hoo. Cabrera's job is to produce runs, not to worry about where his home runs would have landed were he playing in a stadium 2000 miles away.
Silver says Trout's RBI's are understated because he leads off while Cabrera bats third. While true, that also enhances Trout's run total and depresses (in a relative sense) Cabrera's run total. I'd call that a wash.
Getting desperate, Silver turns to the phantom statistic of "clutch" hitting. This statistic has historically been used for such dishonest purposes as claiming that Alex Rodriguez isn't really a good player or that Reggie Jackson is the greatest player ever. Silver uses the real and quantifiable statistic of Win Probability Added to prove that Trout is a more valuable player. Silver gives a nice explanation of this statistic:
In fact, there are now systems, like Win Probability Added, that measure all aspects of clutch performance in a comprehensive way. They account not just for the number of runners on base and the number of outs, but also the game score and the inning. A grand slam when a team trails by three runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth turns a near-certain loss into a win, giving a player maximal credit by this system. A grand slam when a team already leads 7-0 gets little credit, since the game is already in hand.
Trout has a better WPA, with 5.28 games won to Cabrera's 4.81. Of course, by this statistic, Joey Votto was by far the best player in baseball last year, with a WPA of 6.05. Also, Cabrera had a much better WPA in 2011, with a WPA of 7.59. Unlike batting average or home runs, a hitter's WPA depends on a lot of lucky factors. In Silver's example above, the first hitter adds .95 to his WPA and the second adds .00 while they both hit grand slams. The volatility of this statistic makes it instructive, but not absolute. Unlike OPS, I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
Finally, Silver argues that the Angels were a better team, as they won 89 games to the Tigers 88. Again, boo hoo. The Tigers and Cabrera did what they needed to do (at least until the World Series began) and the Angels did not. Further, the Tigers wrapped up their division with a handful of games remaining and set their rotation, likely causing them to lose one or more games. I'd dismiss this claim out of hand.
I didn't even mention that no one has won baseball's Triple Crown in two generations. Cabrera faced pressures that no other player did due to his chase of this elusive goal, and he triumphed.
In conclusion, Mike Trout is a fantastic player, and would certainly be my number one draft pick if I get that spot in my 2013 fantasy baseball draft. But in 2013, Miguel Cabrera was clearly the most valuable player in the American League.
Friday, November 16, 2012
HWX, LIVE show on Saturday
Where can you hear Sen. John Thune and the great Michael Barone opining LIVE on the recent election and where the country is headed politically in the next year? In your dreams, pal.
That would have been the answer any other time. But on Saturday morning at 11AM (central), the Hinderaker Ward Experience makes your dreams come true. John and Brian return with a LIVE show broadcasting from Ricochet.com. Shortly before the broadcast I'll put up a widget here on FL so you can listen that way as well. And don't be late, at the top of the hour we'll go back to back with the distinguished Senator from South Dakota John Thune and one of America's premiere political analysts, Michael Barone.
Following that it's Loon of the Week, This Week in Gatekeeping, and a special appearance from last week's Ricochet member winner of the Secret Word contest, the legendary Gatomal.
It all happens LIVE on Saturday morning at 11am (central). The chat room will be up at Ricochet for members to ask questions, heckle and or toss bouquets in our general direction. It promises to be a fun show, hope to see you all there!
Year Zero
One of the interesting tidbits I picked up last week while on a business trip to Seoul was that Koreans traditionally start counting their age from one at birth. So say if you born on November 16th in the year 2000, you would be thirteen instead of twelve. The way it was explained to me was that they counted the time you spent in your mother's womb.
The official explanation of their version of East Asian age reckoning explains it in different terms:
Koreans generally refer to their age in units called sal (살), using Korean numerals in ordinal form. Thus, a person is one sal during the first calendar year of life, and ten sal during the tenth calendar year.
The 100th-day anniversary of a baby is called baegil (백일), which literally means "a hundred days" in Korean, and is given a special celebration, marking the survival of what was once a period of high infant mortality. The first anniversary of birth named dol (돌) is likewise celebrated, and given even greater significance. Koreans celebrate their birthdays, even though every Korean gains one 'sal' on New Year's Day.
Because the first year comes at birth and the second on the first day of the lunar New Year, a child born, for example, on December 29 (of the lunar calendar) will reach two years of age on Seolnal (Korean New Year), when they are only days old in western reckoning.
In modern Korea the traditional system is most often used. The international age system is referred to as "man-nai" (만나이) in which "man" (만) means "full" or "actual", and "nai" meaning "age". For example, man yeol sal means "full ten years", or "ten years old" in English. The Korean word dol means "years elapsed", identical to the English "years old", but is only used to refer to the first few birthdays. Cheotdol or simply dol refers to the first Western-equivalent birthday, dudol refers to the second, and so on.
As you might expect from such an outlook, South Korea has pretty strict laws against abortion on demand, although regrettably in practice they are apparently rarely enforced.
The official explanation of their version of East Asian age reckoning explains it in different terms:
Koreans generally refer to their age in units called sal (살), using Korean numerals in ordinal form. Thus, a person is one sal during the first calendar year of life, and ten sal during the tenth calendar year.
The 100th-day anniversary of a baby is called baegil (백일), which literally means "a hundred days" in Korean, and is given a special celebration, marking the survival of what was once a period of high infant mortality. The first anniversary of birth named dol (돌) is likewise celebrated, and given even greater significance. Koreans celebrate their birthdays, even though every Korean gains one 'sal' on New Year's Day.
Because the first year comes at birth and the second on the first day of the lunar New Year, a child born, for example, on December 29 (of the lunar calendar) will reach two years of age on Seolnal (Korean New Year), when they are only days old in western reckoning.
In modern Korea the traditional system is most often used. The international age system is referred to as "man-nai" (만나이) in which "man" (만) means "full" or "actual", and "nai" meaning "age". For example, man yeol sal means "full ten years", or "ten years old" in English. The Korean word dol means "years elapsed", identical to the English "years old", but is only used to refer to the first few birthdays. Cheotdol or simply dol refers to the first Western-equivalent birthday, dudol refers to the second, and so on.
As you might expect from such an outlook, South Korea has pretty strict laws against abortion on demand, although regrettably in practice they are apparently rarely enforced.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Cliff Notes
Now that elections are over, America turns its attention to actually attempting to govern itself. One item on the short term agenda is the so-called "fiscal cliff."
Because of the timing of temporary legislation, our government faces the following action, effective in 2013:
My analysis is that we should jump off the fiscal cliff, Thelma and Louise style. The argument against it is that such action would trigger a recession. To that I would argue that politically it will never be the right time to address this problem. The reason that now is the right time is that action is easy. All that has to happen is for the Republican House leadership and President Obama to fail to find common ground. That's a lot more likely than an alternate scenario where the President and Congress maturely make tough choices that benefit America in the long run.
I have to take a stop now. My sides are hurting from laughing at the prospect of my last sentence actually happening.
Because of the timing of temporary legislation, our government faces the following action, effective in 2013:
- The Bush-era income tax cuts, which were actually enacted into current law by President Obama are set to expire. This means most taxpayers will see their rates go up and many non-taxpayers will start paying.
- The alternate minimum tax patch that protects many middle class Americans from higher AMT rates will also expire.
- The payroll tax holiday will also expire, adding another 2% in payroll taxes to the first $100,000 that workers pay.
- Automatic spending cuts will be enacted to national defense and Medicare reimbursement rates.
- The Medicare "doc fix" will expire, reducing reimbursement to Medicare providers even further.
My analysis is that we should jump off the fiscal cliff, Thelma and Louise style. The argument against it is that such action would trigger a recession. To that I would argue that politically it will never be the right time to address this problem. The reason that now is the right time is that action is easy. All that has to happen is for the Republican House leadership and President Obama to fail to find common ground. That's a lot more likely than an alternate scenario where the President and Congress maturely make tough choices that benefit America in the long run.
I have to take a stop now. My sides are hurting from laughing at the prospect of my last sentence actually happening.
Hockey Is Like The Sun
While most Americans are likely paying little attention to the NHL strike, our friends north of the border are feeling the pain. Canada's Goal: A Pro Hockey Settlement Before NHL Slams GDP:
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at Canada's BMO Capital Markets, said earlier in the lockout that a canceled season would shave 0.1% off Canada's annual gross domestic product. Even if both sides settle, he said, a truncated 2012-13 NHL schedule could pare 0.05% from GDP.
Molson Coors Brewing Co. blamed the NHL dispute for a 5% drop in Canadian profits in its most recent quarter. Last week, Molson Chief Executive Peter Swinburn told a national news wire that the brewer, a big NHL sponsor, might seek compensation from the league. A Molson spokesperson confirmed the boss's comments but declined to elaborate.
With a regular season even longer than Canada's northern winters, "hockey is like the sun," driving beer sales up to near-summer levels, said Cam Heaps, co-founder of the Toronto-based microbrewery Steam Whistle Brewing Inc. "If there's a hockey game, people are drinking."
No hockey, no drinking, no sun. Tough days in Canada.
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at Canada's BMO Capital Markets, said earlier in the lockout that a canceled season would shave 0.1% off Canada's annual gross domestic product. Even if both sides settle, he said, a truncated 2012-13 NHL schedule could pare 0.05% from GDP.
Molson Coors Brewing Co. blamed the NHL dispute for a 5% drop in Canadian profits in its most recent quarter. Last week, Molson Chief Executive Peter Swinburn told a national news wire that the brewer, a big NHL sponsor, might seek compensation from the league. A Molson spokesperson confirmed the boss's comments but declined to elaborate.
With a regular season even longer than Canada's northern winters, "hockey is like the sun," driving beer sales up to near-summer levels, said Cam Heaps, co-founder of the Toronto-based microbrewery Steam Whistle Brewing Inc. "If there's a hockey game, people are drinking."
No hockey, no drinking, no sun. Tough days in Canada.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Properly Credentialed
What the heck is a cicerone anyway? While it may sound like one of positions within the Mafia (don, capo, etc.), it actually is a title bestowed upon those deemed to have a particular expertise when it comes to beer. If you want to know which wine to drink, you ask the sommelier. For beer, you need to consult with the cicerone.
As Craft Brew Sales Grow Frothy, Pourers With Pedigrees Bubble Up:
The Cicerone Certification Program was started about five years ago by Ray Daniels, a Chicago-based beer writer who has authored books on the subject. So far, it has certified more than 18,000 beer professionals, including 17,638 Beer Servers (the entry-level ranking), 611 Cicerones (the midlevel) and four Master Cicerones.
To earn certification, Beer Servers need to study a basic eight-page syllabus—topics include national beer styles (think Belgian lambics, English ales and German pilsners) and key beer ingredients (think malted barley, hops, yeast and water)—and then pay $69 to take an online exam with 60 multiple-choice questions.
Master Cicerones, on the other hand, must "possess encyclopedic knowledge of beer" and have "highly refined tasting ability," according to the Cicerone program website—and demonstrate as much during a two-day in-person exam with written, oral and taste-test components. The cost is $595—or about twice what some states charge would-be attorneys to take the bar exam.
Seems like a fair cost based on the comparable value that holders of each title brings to society. The WSJ article on cicerones featured a picture of one of the said beer masters in action and he actually bears a startling resemblance to Mark, the resident beer expert at Glen Lake Wine and Spirits.
Mark's 'stache might just be a hair curlier.
As Craft Brew Sales Grow Frothy, Pourers With Pedigrees Bubble Up:
The Cicerone Certification Program was started about five years ago by Ray Daniels, a Chicago-based beer writer who has authored books on the subject. So far, it has certified more than 18,000 beer professionals, including 17,638 Beer Servers (the entry-level ranking), 611 Cicerones (the midlevel) and four Master Cicerones.
To earn certification, Beer Servers need to study a basic eight-page syllabus—topics include national beer styles (think Belgian lambics, English ales and German pilsners) and key beer ingredients (think malted barley, hops, yeast and water)—and then pay $69 to take an online exam with 60 multiple-choice questions.
Master Cicerones, on the other hand, must "possess encyclopedic knowledge of beer" and have "highly refined tasting ability," according to the Cicerone program website—and demonstrate as much during a two-day in-person exam with written, oral and taste-test components. The cost is $595—or about twice what some states charge would-be attorneys to take the bar exam.
Seems like a fair cost based on the comparable value that holders of each title brings to society. The WSJ article on cicerones featured a picture of one of the said beer masters in action and he actually bears a startling resemblance to Mark, the resident beer expert at Glen Lake Wine and Spirits.
Mark's 'stache might just be a hair curlier.
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