The Last, Best Chance?

Newt Gingrich announced his 21st Century Contract With America, which will be the basis of his Presidential campaign. Listening to Newt in the long form reminded me of all of the reasons I thought he’d be a great President. No other candidate offers this combination of inspirational vision and detailed thought as to how to achieve it. You’re lucky to get just one of these from the existing roster of candidates. Indeed, several of them have neither quality.

The CSPAN video of his full presentation is embedded below, it’s terrific stuff. Included is a bracing description of the scale of the problems we face, and according to Gingrich (a former American history professor), it’s our biggest challenge as a nation since 1860. He also understands the imposing nature of the interest groups and institutional momentum that will try to maintain the status quo and has plans to confront them. Whether those plans survive first contact with the enemy is an open question, but he’s the only candidate who seems to understand the need to proactively organize to defeat them.

Most of his presentation deals with how to resolve the economic crisis we’re experiencing. As we’ve come to expect from him, Newt’s got an abundance of ideas and plans and details to throw at these problems. They include bold reforms for energy production, government regulation, health care, size of government, and federal income taxes. For good measure, he throws in some ideas to rebalance the power dynamic between the braches of government (increase legislative, decrease judicial) and also cure Alzheimer’s disease.

He conveys the proper sense of urgency as well. He’s got a initiative called “On Day One” where he promises to sign between 50 and 200 executive orders right after being inaugurated, to immediately begin righting the ship and detaching ourselves from the Obama agenda. His plan is to have them all posted by October of next year, so voters will know exactly what they’re buying. He’s got a few of them up on his website already and he’s taking suggestions for more. The ones posted are rather underwhelming, but there’s only so much you can do via executive order. For the bigger reforms, Gingrich emphasis that his administration will return to the regular order of legislation, with subcommittee hearings and mark-ups and time for deliberation and discussion before voting - another refreshing change from the current atmosphere of rushed midnight votes on massive legislation that no one has read.

I admit, a few of his ideas seem to be out of left field, for example, his emphasis on funding research on “brain science” (the phrasing of which has a distinctly Bush-like quality). And he’s too easy on entitlement spending, which he doesn’t even mention (other than lowering Medicare costs by curing Alzheimer’s disease via brain science). But even these aspects strike me more as overly ambitious flights of fancy than as flawed reasoning or ideology.

The overall impressions you’re left with from his 21st Century Contract with America is, ironically enough, hope. There actually is a way to get the budget into balance, to pay off the Chinese, to eliminate unsustainable spending imbalances for the long term, and all via hard work and innovation, two things Americans excel at. That’s the kind of message that can fire the imagination of the voters, far more than any vague bloviating about hope and change and fairness and sticking it to the rich

If Gingrich does get the chance to run against Obama, you’ve also got to love his idea for debates. No more journalists setting the agenda of what will be discussed. Instead, he’d challenge Obama to seven “Lincoln-Douglass style debates” of 3 hours each with no moderator. If Obama would accept the terms, what a clear and informed choice the voters would be presented with and what great TV that would be.

For now, we just have Newt in a monolog, which is still pretty good. Watch the video below and I defy you to tell me that Mitt Romney or Rick Perry or Herman Cain would make a better candidate, or better President.

Beer of the Week (Vol. CXVII)

Another edition of Beer of the Week brought to you by the sharp crew at Glen Lake Wine & Spirits who can help you find the diamonds in the rough when it comes to wine, whiskey, and beer.

This week, I was fortunate enough to spend a couple of days in San Diego on a business trip. Unfortunately, my time there was consumed only entirely with business and I had scant opportunity to enjoy the pleasures the area offers. But if you do have to spend your days in meetings and your nights at business events, there are certainly worse places you could be than San Diego, especially when you’re “stuck” on Coronado Island.

Considering it’s temperate climate and generally laid back attitude, it’s somewhat surprising that San Diego features a diverse and well-established craft brewing scene. The list of breweries in and around the city is notable both for its quantity and quality. With my limited free time on this trip, I wasn’t able to enjoy any local brews other than Amber Lager from the Karl Strauss Brewing Company which became my go to beer (and the only craft offering) at our company events.

The good news is that you don’t have to go to San Diego to get your grubby paws on the excellent selection of beers made by Stone Brewing Company. Stone (like Minnesota’s Surly) is a brewery with a reputation for producing aggressive beers that push the envelope with rich flavors that aren’t for the faint of heart.

This week we continue to focus on heavily-hopped India Pale Ales (known as double or Imperial IPAs) with Stone’s Ruination IPA:

So called because of the "ruinous" effect on your palate! This massive hop monster has a wonderfully delicious and intensely bitter flavor on a refreshing malt base. One taste and you can easily see why we call this brew "a liquid poem to the glory of the hop!" Those who seek, crave and rejoice in beers with big, bold, bitter character will find true nirvana in Stone Ruination IPA!

22oz brown bomber bottle that goes for $6.99. Etched label features the usual Stone gargoyle.

STYLE: Double IPA

Alcohol by Volume: 7.7%

COLOR (0-2): Golden brown and rather cloudy. 2

AROMA (0-2): Pine and citrus with a little grass. 2

HEAD (0-2): Bright white colors, big bubbles, and good lacing. 2

TASTE (0-5): A wallop of hops with strong pine and citrus flavors with more muted malt. Noticeably bitter and you can feel the heat. Mouthfeel is a little watery with a heavy body. Not especially drinkable, one to savor rather than slam. 4

AFTERTASTE (0-2): Lingering bitterness. 2

OVERALL (0-6): If you love hops, you’re going to love this beer. And it is quite tasty. My only qualm is that it’s so heavily tilted toward the hops that it lacks some of the balance that helps round out the overall flavor profile. The edges are a tad rough and sharp. Still, Ruination IPA is a very good beer that follows Stone’s precedent of not holding back. 5

TOTAL SCORE (0-19): 17

The Business of America

Interesting local angle in Daniel Henninger's piece in today's WSJ called Taking Cain Seriously:

In the late 1970s, Mr. Cain was recruited from Coca-Cola in Atlanta, his first job in business, to work for Pillsbury in Minneapolis. His rise was rapid and well-regarded. He joined the company's restaurant and foods group in 1978 as director of business analysis. In the early 1980s, Pillsbury sent him to learn the hamburger business at a Burger King in Hopkins, Minn. Then they assigned him, at age 36, to revive Pillsbury's stumbling, franchise Burger King business in the Philadelphia region. He succeeded. According to a 1987 account in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Pillsbury's then-president Win Wallin said: "He was an excellent bet. Herman always seemed to have his act together."

Herman Cain probably learned more about the realities of the world during his stint running a Burger King in Hopkins (or Hopkin as Atomizer calls it) than Barack Obama ever did during his days as a community organizer. Henninger's point is that it seems silly to discount Cain's candidacy because of lack of political experience given his extensive business background especially when just that sort of experience is Mitt Romney’s chief selling point. For the last three years, we’ve been lead by a president steeped in politics from an early age with precious little experience in or understanding of business and capitalism. Given what career politicians have wrought for the country of late, instead of seeing Cain’s lack of political experience as a detriment we should rightly view it as an asset.

I Thought Failure Was an Orphan?

It’s been a tough week for Jim Oberstar.

He was the leader of the Catholic Democrats in Congress back in 2010, when ObamaCare was ram-rodded through the House. His vote was critical to its passing, and it came with the calming assurance there would be nothing to worry about for those adhering to the Catholic confession. Now, as Chad noted, information is emerging that the religious conscience protections contained in the ObamaCare legislation are as flimsy as the Solyndra business plan.

Another foundation of the Oberstar legacy is the Safe Routes to Schools bill, which attempted to facilitate children walking to school in order to improve their health. He’s got more than his fingerprints on this one, his very DNA is all over it:

Father of 'Safe Routes', Congressman Jim Oberstar, visits a local school

Congressman Jim Oberstar (D-MN), the man whose vision back in 1998 led to the national Safe Routes to Schools program … After seeding several pilot programs in 1998, he helped pass federal legislation for Safe Routes to School to the tune of over $600 million. Today, over 7,000 schools in America benefit from that program.

It all seemed so right at the time. Sure, it cost a few hundred million in 2005 when it was passed. But those were the go-go Bush years of positive economic growth and only half trillion dollar annual deficits. Besides, it was an investment in the children. Anyone who disagreed with this obviously had no heart. Thousands of schools were helped and legions of children are now strolling safely to school, thanks to father Oberstar.

Six years later, that money has been spent. But about those children it was supposed to help? The Pioneer Press provides an update:

… after spending $820 million to promote walking to school and reducing childhood obesity, there is no sign the program has actually added any walkers at all.

Interesting that the cost increased by a couple of hundred million dollars between those two reports, but the number of kids helped has stayed the same. And at the nice round number of zero.

In 1969, 42 percent of children walked or biked to school, according to the Safe Routes to School National Partnership in North Carolina.

By 2001, that number had plummeted to 13 percent. Eight years later, after the program was 4 years old, the number was unchanged.

Compelling evidence of all of that money and effort, wasted. It should be devastating news for the people responsible. But never underestimate the ability of a bureaucrat to polish a gold-plated turd. About that zero percent growth ...

"We take that to be good news," said partnership director Deb Hubsmith, because the decline has been halted.

It’s not the increase in the number of walkers that matters, it’s the number of walkers who have been created or saved. That excuse for zero growth seems to be getting awfully popular during the Obama era.

The PiPress provides some additional background on the program:

It was created by former Minnesota Rep. Jim Oberstar in 2000. Oberstar was appalled at the steep increases in childhood obesity and diabetes.

At the same time, he learned that 75 percent of children's trips away from home were in motor vehicles, up from 40 percent in the 1960s. "We have a generation of mobility-challenged children," he said.

The solution? The Safe Routes to School program.

From 2005 through 2010, it was funded for $820 million. Safe Routes gives grants for anything that encourages walking or biking to school - mostly sidewalks, safer street crossings and education. The grants have gone to 11,000 schools in all 50 states.

In other words, a powerful member of the House Transportation Committee takes two disparate data points (rate of diabetes and preferred method of getting to school), concocts a causal relationship between them, and gets busy finding a way to spend nearly a billion dollars on a program to fix it.

No mention is made of any attempt to gather data as to whether this cause and effect relationship exists. Or to analyze whether or not his proposed remedy would work. No, they just went ahead and spent the money on the faith of Oberstar’s convictions. Talk about anti-science.

Alas, now that the money has been spent, information is emerging about the efficacy of Dr. Oberstar’s prescription:

Parents say the approach is wrong. They say their children don't walk because of fear of crime, Minnesota's harsh winters, and laziness. Parents like to pamper their kids by driving them. And many schools are built to discourage walking. So all the sidewalks in the world wouldn't make any difference, said Barbara Smith of Woodbury. (…)

Such fears are a reality of modern life, said Gary Dechaine, transportation director for South Washington County Schools, and he wondered if any federal program could change that. "No parent today would ever have their kid walk six blocks," Dechaine said.

So, it turns out that having a safe route has little to do with kids walking to school. (Let alone whether or not walking to school would lower obesity and diabetes rates.) It’s these types of little details that would be nice to cover BEFORE we agree to borrow $800 million from the Chinese in order to build sidewalks to schools for the purpose of lowering childhood obesity and diabetes rates.

I suppose any parent has a hard time facing the failures of their children. Jim Oberstar is no exception:

Oberstar, the father of the program, acknowledges these objections. But he said his program is making steady progress in wearing down the nation's unhealthy, antiwalking biases.

"We are changing habits of an entire generation," said Oberstar. "It is going to take time - but it is happening."

That sounds exciting, but to put it into context, here are some other things Jim Oberstar is expecting to happen, any time now:

-- early return of Haley's comet

-- Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl

-- Chaz Bono wins Miss Congeniality award on Dancing with the Stars

-- John Huntsman captures imagination of GOP electorate

If past precedent for government programs is any guide, I predict that after another 10 years of no kids walking to school, Oberstar will break down and admit that the program can't work ... because it's under funded. Another $820 million or so might have done the trick.

Little Known Congressional District Facts

I’m sure you’ll agree that congressional district trivia is endlessly fascinating. As an example, let’s look at the two congressional districts that rank as the poorest in the United States.

The poorest congressional district in the nation is New York-16 with a median income of $23,270. The district is located in the Bronx and is represented by Jose Serrano. In addition to being the poorest of our 435 congressional districts, NY-16 is also the most Democrat (Cook rating D+41). It is also the LEAST white congressional district in the United States (2.3% White, 28.2% Black, 66.4% Hispanic, 1.7% Asian).

But before we start drawing too many conclusions on racism in America, let’s look at the second poorest congressional district in the nation: Kentucky-5 with a median income $27,731. The district is located in the Appalachia region of eastern Kentucky and is represented by Republican Hal Rogers. While the district is not the most Republican in the nation, it has a solid R+16 Cook rating. In addition to being the second poorest of our 435 congressional districts, KY-5 is the MOST white congressional district in the United States (96.5% White, 1.4% Black, 0.8% Hispanic, 0.4% Asian).

CONCLUSION: None really, that is why we call it trivia. But it would seem that it is best to avoid the extremes.

Prager University: Is Israel an Apartheid State?

Conscience Call

An insert appeared in parish bulletins across the country this weekend with a call to action from the US Conference of Catholic Bishops:

In implementing the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the new health care reform law), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently issued a rule requiring almost all private health plans to cover contraception and sterilization as “preventive services” for women. The mandate even forces individuals and groups with religious or moral objections to purchase and provide such coverage if they are to receive or provide health coverage at all. This poses an unprecedented threat to individual and institutional religious freedom.

The rule includes a religious exemption so extremely narrow that it protects almost no one. It covers only a “religious employer” that has the “inculcation of religious values” as its purpose, primarily employs and serves persons who share its religious tenets, and is a church organization under two narrow provisions of the tax code. A great many religious organizations -- including Catholic colleges and universities, as well as hospitals and charitable institutions that serve the public -- will be ineligible. Individuals and religiously affiliated health insurers will not qualify for the exemption.

The new rule would force insurance plans to cover “all Food and Drug Administration approved contraceptive methods, sterilization procedures, and patient education and counseling for all women with reproductive capacity.” Never before has the federal government required private health plans to include such coverage. The FDA-approved “emergency contraception” (EC) drugs that are covered by this mandate can work by interfering with implantation of a newly conceived human being. Also, the drug the FDA most recently approved for EC, "Ella,” a close analogue to the abortion drug RU-486, has been shown in animal tests to cause abortion. Thus, the mandate includes drugs that may cause an abortion both before and after implantation.

Wait a minute. What about all those Catholic Democrats who voted for Obamacare who assured us that protections were in place in the legislation to prevent exactly this sort of thing from happening? Are you telling me they were wrong? Or maybe they were simply not being truthful.

HWX, with Ralph Peters

The latest edition of the Hinderaker-Ward Experience (HWX) podcast is now up on Ricochet.

After a rare and well-deserved break of about a month, John Hinderaker and I get the band back together for a fresh discussion of world events. In particular, we share our thoughts on the falling stars of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, the potential inevitability of Mitt Romney, and keep hope alive for Newt Gingrich.

Our special guest is author and former NY Post columnist Ralph Peters. The occasion of his visit is the publication of his 28th(!) book, Lines of Fire. It's a compilation of his writings on foreign policy and war over the past 20 years. He comes from a unique perspective in the pundit world (career military man, US Army intelligence) and always produces provocative and unorthodox analyses. We also discuss his next book, a Civil war historical novel coming in February, called Cain at Gettysburg. As we discuss, it attempts to present the real story of humans at war in the setting of Gettysburg, including (but not limited to) the bathroom habits of the Union Army (talk about provocative!).

Also Loon of the Week (a triple shot of liberal threats of violence and crises, featuring Michael Moore and Tom Harkin) and This Week in Gate Keeping (getting Sir Mix-a-Lot titles wrong and checking The Fact Checker in the Washington Post).

Many ways to hear the podcast, including over on the mothership at Ricochet. You can also be sure to never miss an episode, by subscribing via iTunes or Feedburner. Or get the stream for your mobile device on Sticher. Or just use the player embedded in the upper right hand corner of the Fraters Libertas main page. If all of these fail, send me an email and I'll come to your house and read from the written transcript. Enjoy.

Make It Real

Michael Baruzzini on Walker Percy, Bourbon, and the Holy Ghost:

Looking to the concrete helps us discover the Christian notion of sacramentality. It is in water that we are born again; it is with bread and wine that we encounter Christ in the flesh in today’s world. It is these things that make our Christianity more than an academic exercise. So Percy would answer Barrett’s question by saying: just do it. It is Wednesday afternoon and you are a Christian: sing a song of praise, or go to Mass and eat God’s flesh. You are a loving husband, so kiss your wife. You are a father: play catch with your son or help him with his homework. You are a man at the end of a day of work: make a cocktail. If you want to be these things—a husband, a father, a son of God—there are things to do to make it real.

Beer of the Week (Vol. CXVI)

Another edition of Beer of the Week brought to you by the clean cut crew at Glen Lake Wine & Spirits who can help you break away from the pack and discover the finer things in the world of wine, whiskey, and beer. And remember that when it comes to beer, Mark is the store’s official hophead.

This week we feature another offering from the Odell Brewing Company in Fort Collins, Colorado. It’s called Myrcenary:

Named for Myrcene, a component of essential oils in the hop flower, Myrcenary Double IPA is our tribute to those who revere the illustrious hop, and their unyielding exploit to craft hop forward beers. Brewed with a blend of hops containing the highest levels of Myrcene, this double IPA prevails with a tropical fruit-like flavor, a pungent floral aroma, and a clean getaway.

Hmmm...sounds delicious. I wonder where else you can find this myrcene stuff? Partial list of the plants that contain myrcene:

As mentioned above, many plants contain myrcene, sometimes in very large amounts.

• Houttuynia
• Mangoes
• Cannabis spp.
• Hops
• Lemon grass
• West Indian Bay Tree
• Verbena
• Mercia

Enough said. Let’s get on to the beer.

12oz brown bottle with etching. Tan label with the usual Odell paper feel features a motorcycle with a sidecar loaded with hops making a quick escape.

STYLE: Double IPA

Alcohol by Volume: 9.3%

COLOR (0-2): Golden and somewhat foggy. 2

AROMA (0-2): Pineapple and grapefruit with some pine. 2

HEAD (0-2): Bright white color, moderate volume, fluffy with good lacing. 2

TASTE (0-5): Like the aroma with even stronger flavors of pine, grapefruit, and floral hops. Some nice sweet malt too and a touch of sugar. Despite all the hop flavors, it’s not overly bitter. You can definitely feel the heat, but it’s not overpowering. The mouthfeel is somewhat creamy and the body is medium to heavy. It’s actually fairly drinkable considering the strong flavors and alcohol content. 5

AFTERTASTE (0-2): Smooth and rich. 2

OVERALL (0-6): Wow. This is a damn fine beer and a great example of a double IPA done the right way. It packs tons of hoppy flavors, but doesn’t go overboard with the bitterness as some double IPAs do. There’s also a unique flavor in the beer (the myrcene perhaps?) that I can’t quite put my finger on that really helps this one stand out. Odell’s Myrcenary Double IPA is among the best beers in the land. For now, I’m going to rate it just a notch below Bell’s Hopslam Ale and Surly’s Abrasive Ale. At $8.99 a four-pack it’s a great value and it’s a beer that I’m definitely going to revisit. 5

TOTAL SCORE (0-19): 18

The World Is Run By Those Who Show Up

The historical context Chad provides below really emphasizes how hasty Pawlenty's departure may have been from the GOP race. He bailed months before the first vote in the first primary will be cast. Yet, besides for Romney, voters hadn't fully formed impressions of any of the candidates. Pawlenty's primary reason for leaving was his belief that he couldn't win the one state he had to win (Iowa) because of Michele Bachmann's popularity. But, as she's proven in the past few weeks (and over her career), she's highly susceptible to falling into some controversy that would eliminate her from serious consideration by most voters. That controversy may be unfair to her, or a product of media frenzy, but a fatal controversy to her candidacy, none the less.

Pawlenty's potential was illustrated in February by Nate Silver. His graphical representation of the GOP field at the time shows where candidates fell on two of the most important variables for this year's primary electorate, establishment vs. insurgent and moderate vs. conservative. At that time Pawlenty occupied kind of a sweet spot. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right.


He updated this chart post-Iowa straw poll and with the announced candidacy of Rick Perry (represented by the large dotted line circle). It shows Pawlenty still well positioned, but with Perry as a more conservative and less establishment oriented candidate.

I think the jury's still out as to whether the electorate will ultimately consider Perry to be either more conservative or less establishment than Tim Pawlenty. Widespread coverage of his past flirtations with government mandates and enabling illegal immigration, not to mention supporting Al Gore, could certainly move his impression upward and to the left on this chart. If that's the case, he shifts towards Romney territory. And if those two are fighting for the more moderate and establishment wing of the GOP primary electorate. Left up for grabs is the large, and perhaps decisive, vote of the tea party wing. Assuming a broad coalition will never form for Bachmann, Paul, or Cain, Tim Pawlenty could have been in prime position to pick that up, especially in Iowa, if here were still in the race.

Perspective and Patience

Karl Rove has a piece in today's WSJ on Handicapping the GOP Debate that helps put things in perspective:

At this point four years ago, Rudy Giuliani led the GOP field with 28%, trailed by former Sen. Fred Thompson at 23% and John McCain at 15%, with everyone else in single digits. When the dust finally cleared, neither Messrs. Giuliani nor Thompson was a serious contender—and Govs. Romney and Mike Huckabee pressed Mr. McCain hard before he prevailed. All of which means the 2012 Republican sweepstakes is far from over.

At times, there seems to such a rush to "narrow the field" and get down to the "real contenders" that it's easy to forget that even though the campaign for the GOP nomination has been going on for some time, there's still a long way to go and a lot that can happen. If such winnowing calls were heeded in 2008, we'd have been down to two candidates, neither of whom it turned out had the requisite fires in their bellies. Today, it might look like it's Perry and Romney and everybody else, but we shouldn’t be so quick to assume that current will continue. And we should still keep an open mind to other candidates who may yet surprise us.

It also raises the question that Saint Paul asked last week of whether Pawlenty withdrew too hastily. While the lifeblood of any campaign is money and you can understand why the underfunded Pawlenty didn’t want to continue, it seems likely that if he were still in the race there might be an opening for him right now. If we really are down to a choice between Perry and Romney, I think a lot of Republicans will opt for the one they view as least offensive. Pawlenty doesn’t have near the baggage from his days as governor that Perry and Romney do and he would likely be the most electable among the rest of the Republican field. Voters may never had become particularly passionate about Pawlenty, but those who have problems with both Romney and Perry could have opted for him as a safe alternative.

As Karl Rove says, the race for the 2012 GOP nomination is far from over and the eventual victor may not be one of the "real contenders" today. One thing we know for sure is that it won’t be Tim Pawlenty.