Thanks for the Amnesty

According to reports, Norm Coleman was among the Senate Republicans voting to allow the Senate Comprehensive Immigration Reform to continue to an almost certain passage.

National Review had earlier identified Coleman as one of the key players who could have stopped this bill before its future fell under the control of a simple majority vote, in a body controlled by Democrats, 51 - 49.

They are Sens. Kit Bond, Sam Brownback, Richard Burr, Thad Cochran, Norm Coleman, John Ensign, and Jim Webb. If any of these senators votes to revive the bill, his professions of opposition to amnesty should no longer be taken seriously. He will have done his crucial bit, when the amnesty bill was most vulnerable, to help shepherd it to passage.

The vote just occurred and Coleman hasn't been asked to comment yet. Let's just see how much his explanation for this vote matches the NR prediction:

We know how senators who claim to oppose amnesty will try to explain away a vote to revive the bill. They will rely on procedural obfuscation: They didn't want to obstruct the process, they wanted to get a vote on an amendment, etc. But amnesty is staying in the bill -- no amendment to strike the bill's central features has any chance of passage -- and it deserves to be obstructed.

Knowing Coleman's history of getting on both sides of an issue, a vote allowing the bill to progress, then voting against the specific bill's passage would be in character. Come election season next year, depending on his audience, he can then point to his various votes to prove he's on your side. But ultimately, today's vote was the big one and he's acted contrary to the preferences of most conservatives.

This vote is going to be a bitter pill to swallow for many who fought so hard for the man in 2002. He's turning out to be no Rod Grams or Mark Kennedy, something most already knew. But he's also no Walter Mondale or Al Franken. Elections are choices not referenda.

It should be noted that Coleman will have to face an election before a Democrat can officially challenge him in 2008. And there is a potential candidate out there who seems a little more reliable than Norm. Whether Joe Repya can capitalize on this issue will be an indicator of how much Minnesota Republicans really care about illegal immigration. I think Coleman is banking that the answer is 'not that much'.

It's also interesting to note the timing of the Minnesota GOP releasing one of its SCREAM email press releases today, entitled:

Why I Oppose Misleadingly Named 'Employee Free Choice Act'

Hard for Republicans to argue with Norm about that. Now ignore that undocumented worker in the corner.

UPDATE: According to sources, today's "cloture" vote was only a preliminary one. The final "cloture" vote is on Thursday. (Maybe by this time, they'll figure out they're spelling "closure" incorrectly.) This measure also needs 60 votes to pass, so the tyranny of the bare majority still has one more impediment in its way. A chance for Coleman to redeem himself? Or maybe a chance for him to stake out a third position on the issue. An abstention, a vote of "present," a cry of "yea, but," it will be interesting to watch.

UPDATE: Press release from Norm Coleman's office, 'splaining his actions. According to this, he wants to give the bill one last chance to "significantly improve" before voting against it.

Senator Coleman intends to vote for cloture in order to allow one last effort to significantly improve the enforcement measures in the immigration reform bill. He fully believes that the current immigration system in this country is totally broken. It remains to be seen whether this bill will be the answer to this serious problem, which is why he is reserving judgment on how he will vote on final passage.

Hoping people like John McCain, Ted Kennedy, and Harry Reid are going to get it right with one more chance to fiddle with it. Now that's faith based politics, bordering on fanaticism.