One significant event emerged from the Minnesota Gubernatorial debate Tuesday night. No, I'm not talking about Eric Eskola's new scarf (OK make it two significant events). Rather, I'm speaking of the solidification of a potentially permanent four party system here in Minnesota. Unlike the complex and difficult to achieve federal system, Minnesota law, for good and for evil, simply defines a "major" party as any that achieves 5% or more of the vote in any statewide election. This recognition allows for automatic ballot access and access to publicly funded campaign financing. In addition, the local media has adopted this standard for how they treat candidates, therefore anyone nominated by a major party has been given equal space in newspaper profiles and has been allowed to participate in the media presented debates.
Such was the case with Tuesday night's debate, which featured the DFL candidate Roger Moe, Republican Tim Pawlenty, Tim Penny of the Independence Party and Green Ken Pentel (or as Joe McCarthy would call him, Pink Ken Pentel). All four of them, sitting on a modular couch, being asked the same inane questions by the same inane moderators (one of them wearing a scarf).
What eventually occurred to me, amid the rote recitation of standard answers and half hearted attempts at mudslinging (and I'm describing what was going on in my living room) is that proximity and presence does matter in one's valuation of a candidate as legitimate--even to the exclusion of what they're actually saying. Just the fact that Ken Pentel was sitting in a suit next to the Senate Majority leader, and uttering big words, using correct syntax and grammar, gave him instant credibility as a candidate. It didn't matter that he happened to be advocating the use of human feces as an environmentally-friendly tub and tile grout, gosh darnit, he looked like he belonged there!
This is an accomplishment that cannot be reached through the other means available to non-major party candidates. No matter how many pamphlets you publish on 40% post consumer waste recycled paper or how many times Doug Grow trumpets you as a "caring voice from the chorus of the people," the average a-hole in Hopkins is going to hear you're a member of the "Green Party" and he's still going to think you're a freak and a loser. Sadly, this is one of the few times the good people of Hopkins get to be right on an issue, and now it's gone. The power of the televised image alone is enough to overcome this initial hurdle of recognition and impress an aura of credibility, no matter the intelligence of the observer.
Understand, I'm not claiming that the Greens have any chance of winning this year. The Independence Party certainly does, and at this point, I'd have to say Penny is the favorite. He'll draw the percentage of the population that believes voting for him is an act of intellectual superiority, affirming their independence from the crass party paradigm ("Honey, he's doesn't call himself a Democrat--he only acts like one, this is great!"). As this group is about 36% of the entire population--that's enough to put Penny over the top.
However, the Greens will certainly get 5% of the vote this time, maybe more due to the mass exposure provided by the TV. That means they get to hang around again, throughout the next election cycle, further giving the appearance that they have something substantive to say. The longer they are allowed to sniff around the electorate, the more they will be able to nibble away at the slightly less extreme extremists (commonly known as social moderates). And with 4 apparently credible entities claiming their share of the vote, you can forget about a majority deciding anything. It's going to be a plurality, and a weak one at that. It's plausible that it will only take 28% - 30% to win an election for Governor. And I do believe the Greens have it within their power to gain this much of a vote in Minnesota. That is, as long as they don't nominate some bizarre clown as their candidate, like Fancy Ray McCloney or John Marty.
So is it a good thing, this easy access to major party status? Unless your a raving fan of modern Italian electoral politics, the answer is no. When you consider the potential results of such a system--a Green in the Executive Mansion--the answer is resoundingly no. But I'm afraid we're stuck with it.
At least until a 5th party snares 5% of some vote, but this time the party is from the right or libertarian ranks. At that point I predict the media will come to the opinion that adding another voice to the discussion will be too chaotic so their procedures for inclusion in the debates must change. And the legislature will begin to question the legitimacy of a winning candidate who might only get 22% of the vote, because that simply isn't a mandate, so the laws about major party recognition will need some tweaking.
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