There was much talk this week about the special election in Louisiana's Sixth District, where Republican Woody Jenkins was knocked off by Don Cazayoux. The district had been in Republican hands for thirty-four years and many pundits divined that this election's outcome was a preview of a coming Republican debacle in the fall. In today's WSJ, Kimberly Strassel says that while there is a lesson for Republicans in Jenkins' defeat, it's not that all hope is lost:
Yet Mr. Jenkins was also a divisive firebrand. He was infamous for carrying around plastic fetuses, to demonstrate his opposition to abortion. He'd previously landed in a weird entanglement with former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. This history made even conservatives fidgety, and crowded out anything Mr. Jenkins had to say on issues.
More debilitating to the Jenkins campaign was a strong whiff of the ethical problems that have plagued Republicans. A labor union ran ads noting Mr. Jenkins's had seen 19 tax liens filed against him and his broadcasting company since 1990. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pointed out that a murky Jenkins charity had paid him consulting fees, paid rent to his company, and paid more than a half-a-million dollars to his wife. He'd been in hot water over campaign contributions, and voted against financial disclosure.
Democrats, meanwhile, have realized it's more important to win than to impose liberal litmus tests on candidates. Mr. Jenkins's opponent, Don Cazayoux, was pro-life and pro-gun. He had nice things to say about John McCain, and rarely mentioned Mr. Obama or Hillary Clinton. A self-styled "John Breaux Democrat," he focused on education and health care.
As the polls deteriorated, the National Republican Congressional Committee ran desperate ads attempting to link Mr. Cazayoux to Mr. Obama. The comparison was ludicrous, and Louisiana voters knew it (even if the national press corps didn't). It failed to save Mr. Jenkins from a three percentage-point loss.
Clearly in Jenkins case, there were problems with both the message and the messenger. In contrast to another GOP candidate in Louisiana:
He might have also directed those listening to another Louisiana election this weekend, one that didn't get nearly the attention. The district is also conservative; Mr. Bush won 71% in 2004. The real difference was the campaign.
The 43-year-old Republican, Steve Scalise, had pinpointed today's GOP vulnerabilities, and ran an anti-status-quo campaign. His focal point was wasteful spending, and he touted his legislation to reform Louisiana's earmark process.
Another hallmark was ethics reform and his fight against public corruption. He talked up competitive private health care, lower taxes and school choice.
Republicans looking for an Obama doppelganger would have been better served by his Democratic competitor, Gilda Reed. She campaigned on immediate withdrawal from Iraq and "universal" health care. Trade came in for a bashing, as did secret ballots in union-organizing elections. Ms. Reed explained she was personally pro-life, but felt abortion needed to remain legal. Her cause became that of the liberal left, with the Daily Kos hosting an online fund-raiser on her behalf. Mr. Scalise won 75% of the vote.
Strassel summarizes what the real lessons of both campaigns should be for the GOP:
With Democrats actively recruiting conservative candidates, it's no longer good enough for the GOP names to fall back on cultural credentials, to demagogue immigration, or to simply promise lower taxes. Voters care about the size of government, but they are equally worried about the cost of doctor visits and gas prices. The winners will be those who explain the merits of a private health-care reform, who talk about vouchers, who push for energy production. And given its reputation on ethics, it's clear the GOP has to recruit Mr. Cleans, who also make voters believe they are more interested in solving problems than bringing home pork.
It's almost a cliché these days to say that politicians can't just be against something, they have to be for something, but Republican candidates need to beaten over the head with that simple message every day between now and November 4th.
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