Gray Old Party

There's been much talk of late around the Fraters water cooler about the aught-eight election. JB is quite adamant that it's simply not feasible to imagine that voters will put Hillary Clinton back in the White House. I think it's going to come down to a question of what turns off voters more: the idea of another Clinton as president or another Republican.

An article in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal provides some evidence of the public's distaste for the GOP (sub req):

For Republicans hoping the 2008 campaign will bring a fresh start after the troubled tenure of President Bush, there are sobering signs: Evidence indicates that the party's problems with the American electorate are much bigger than the president and won't go away when he leaves office.

Recent voter surveys, including private polling done by a leading Republican strategist, suggest a broader erosion of Republicans' appeal. In particular, three groups crucial to Mr. Bush's goal of a "permanent Republican majority" are drifting away: younger voters, Hispanics and independents.

The numbers are pretty stark:

In the 2006 congressional elections, Democrats won all three groups. Voters 18 to 29 years old favored Democrats over Republicans by 60% to 38%, exit polls showed. Hispanics favored Democrats 69% to 30%; Republicans' share was 14 percentage points lower than its Hispanic vote in congressional elections two years earlier. Independents went for Democrats 57% to 39%; in 2004, Democrats only narrowly got more votes than Republicans.

"The state of the Republican Party is worse than any time since Watergate, and arguably this is worse than Watergate," says party strategist Vin Weber, a former congressman, "because that was about an event, whereas this may reflect a trend."

When you have a voice of experience and reason like Vin Weber say that the sky is falling, you better cover your head.

Another problem facing the GOP is that it's not getting any younger:

In the current survey, 17% of Republicans are 18 to 34 years old, down from 25% in 1997. Republicans 55 and older constitute 41% of the party -- up from 28% a decade ago.

The need to court young voters is often over-hyped as are claims that young voters will determine the outcome of elections. However, it is pretty clear that you need young blood to provide energy, ideas, and enthusiasm for a political party to continue to thrive and grow. The aging of the GOP is yet another indicator of the precarious position the party currently finds itself in and its very uncertain future.