Hope, For A Change

With it looking more and more like we'll be seeing an Obama-McCain matchup come November, there's a lot of talk about the challenges that such a pairing poses for the GOP. Voters are ready for a change. It's a bad year for Republicans. All the enthusiasm is on the Democrats side. Obama's youthful image will be a stark contrast to the seventy-one year McCain. Blah, blah, blah.

Frankly, I've bought into this chatter as well and have thought for some time that the only chance any Republican had was to be facing Hillary in November.

However, while watching last night's primary coverage, I was thinking more about Obama versus McCain and realized that the matchup may not be as bad for Republicans as has been advertised. Before we start slitting our wrists and abandoning all hope, we should consider a couple of factors that have nothing to do with issues, but are emotionally based. Don't underestimate how important such factors can be in determining the outcome either.

#1 Age Before Beauty: Is being younger really such a guaranteed advantage for Obama? Boomers are just beginning to reach retirement age and more of them (and those older) will likely be able to relate more to McCain's career path and life story than Obama's. How many times have they seen an older, experienced colleague who deserved the job pushed aside in favor of a younger, smooth-talking up and comer?

We hear a lot of talk about gender and racial identity voting. But what about voters feeling sympathy for their age cohort? The power of the youth vote is oft toted and exaggerated. The reality is that older voters are much more likely to turn out on election day.

#2 Settling Versus Finding Your Dream Man: It seems highly unlikely that anything could happen between now and November that would cause Republican voters to think less of John McCain. The vast majority of Republicans who support him do so for pragmatic reasons. They've known him for a long time and have a good grasp of his personality, warts and all. They're not overly enamored with him, but now he's their man for better or for worse. I would imagine that between now and November as Republicans become more and more comfortable with McCain, their support and enthusiasm for him will only increase, especially when he really starts going after Obama (we saw a glimpse of that last night with the "eloquent but empty" tag).

Compare that with the mad crush that Dems now have on Obama. They think they fell in love at first site. They've been dating for a few months and now are ready to elope to Vegas and get married. But what happens when they wake up after the honeymoon and discover that they don't really know the person sleeping next to them after all? Young, swooning love can be a wonderful thing, but the passion can only burn for so long. And if there's not something more there to sustain it, the relationship can sour quickly.

Between now and November, it's almost a certainty that at least some Democrats will have the Obama scales fall from their eyes. The expectations that they currently have for him are completely unrealistic. And with great expectations often come great disappointments. How they will handle it when the perfect man of their dreams turns out to be all too real and flawed?

Winning the presidency in 2008 is going to be a monumental challenge for Republicans. But for these (and other) reasons, I don't believe it is an insurmontable one.