Keeping It Real

Steve from St. Paul e-mails:

I couldn't agree more with your post regarding the GOP prospects for '08 in Minnesota. The glass is definately half empty, and I'm not just saying that because I live in St. Paul, and everyone I've voted for in my 41 years has lost. (except for Norm Coleman, who I voted for as Mayor when he was a DFLer.) There is one wild card in the mix though. If the inevitable protests at the Republican Convention are serious and violent, it could piss off enough people to tip the state Red in the presidential race, and guarantee Coleman's senate seat. However, I don't see (or want) that happening. The anarkids are generally more bark than bite.

By the way, one person who could benefit from your hard, cold realism is your radio partner John Hinderaker. As much as I enjoy his brilliant blogging, he really was a pollyanna about Mark Kennedy, among other races in 2006.

We'll do our best to dampen John's unbridled enthusiasm this time around.

UPDATE-- Jeff e-mails with hope:

I don't totally disagree with your post re MN being out of play for the GOP presidential candidate in '08 (at least right now).

However, if past election results are any indication, if the GOP candidate does not keep the race somewhat close here in '08, the odds of us holding on to Coleman, Bachmann, Kline and Ramstad's seat -- and picking up state House seats -- go down dramatically.

What happens at the top of the ticket has a huge impact down the ballot.

In 2002, Coleman carried the state over Mondale by about 2 percent. Down the ballot, the GOP won the governor's race, the secretary of state race and the state auditors race, and also picked up a congressional seat, a number of state Senate seats and 13 state House seats.

In 2004, Kerry carried the state by about 3.5 percent. Down the ballot, the DFL picked up 13 state House seats.

In 2006, Klobuchar beat Kennedy by 20 percent. Down the ballot, the DFL knocked off an incumbent GOP congressman, secretary of state and state auditor, and picked up a number of state senate seats and 19 state House seats. The only bright spot was Pawlenty hanging on as governor (barely).

For the sake of other important races, lets hope things change nationally and MN is another battleground state in '08.

Unfortunately, Jeff is correct about the drag that the top of the ballot will have on all MN GOP candidates in '08. But it's better to acknowledge that now and seek ways to overcome it rather than pretending it doesn't exist.