Fraters Libertas

The Long Goodbye

This Wall Street Journal article on the decline of newspaper circulations presents the welcome news that just maybe the laws of economics are not exempt in the world of journalism. While the product being supplied by the mainstream media (information) is still in high demand, if the quality is substandard, consumers will find other outlets. Thanks to the Internet, this is increasingly true even in markets where the daily hard copy deliverable previously had a monopoly status.

The newspaper industry, already suffering from circulation problems, could be looking at its worst numbers in more than a decade.

Circulation numbers to be released today by the Audit Bureau of Circulations probably will show industrywide declines of 1% to 3%, according to people familiar with the situation -- possibly the highest for daily newspapers since the industry shed 2.6% of subscribers in 1990-91.

The biggest publishers may show the largest declines: Gannett Co., which owns about 100 newspapers, says it will be down "a couple of points" from last year's levels. Circulation at Tribune Co.'s Los Angeles Times is likely to be off in excess of 6% of its most recently reported figures. Belo Corp.'s Dallas Morning News expects to report daily circulation down 9% and Sunday circulation down 13% from the year-earlier period. All projected figures are for the six months ended in March.

Unfortunately, this trend hasn't yet extended to all substandard information providing monopoly outlets. The sun still shines on the local provider of the product:

McClatchy Co., which has posted 20 straight years of subscriber growth -- an unprecedented record in the industry -- uses everything from door-to-door sales crews to sending lapsed subscribers handwritten notes imploring them to resubscribe. McClatchy is a small newspaper chain that operates 12 dailies, including the Sacramento Bee and the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

It's hard to believe marketing gimmicks alone can account for the Star Tribune's success in holding its circulation. For whatever reason, it still has a this community under a spell that will not be as easily broken as in other markets. Why any of the tens of thousands on conservatively-minded readers would ever support this unremittingly shrill, hostile, and insulting forum for liberalism is beyond me. For many, I suppose the sports page, the Target ads, and the James Lileks columns are enough to maintain a Minnesota complacency in the face of damage to one's political and ideological interests.

I also suspect it's lack of knowledge that other information outlets exist which keeps many people dependent on the thump of the rolled up broadsheet on their steps every morning. This means sustained circulation numbers at the Star Tribune may be a function of demographics. As their readership ages and withers away, and are not replaced by younger readers who are quite versant on the other options available, the reversal of their unprecedented record of growth may finally be realized.

It seems the Star Tribune is aware of this possibility, if their so-called Reader's Representative can be believed. In Sunday's Kate Parry column, she details some focus group outreach being conducted by the editorial staff, including this insight gleaned from a member of the target demographic:

Kate Lasota, a junior at Spring Lake Park High School, explained how urgent it was for editors to think about readers her age. "You're going to want to hook my age group right now by directing a few things towards me, some things I want to hear and read about. Because as I go off to college it's going to be, 'Which do I want to read?' I have that choice and you want my business."

Yes ... very interesting. People want stuff that appeals to their interests. Write what people want to read about, and they'll read your publication. Eureeka!

This type of feedback reminds me of the focus group for Itchy and Scratchy conducted on the Simpsons. The earnest market researcher's summary:

Okay, how many of you kids would like Itchy & Scratchy to deal with real-life problems, like the ones you face every day? (the kids all cheer and agree) And who would like to see them do just the opposite - getting into far-out situations involving robots and magic powers? (more cheering) So, you want a realistic, down-to-earth show... that's completely off-the-wall and swarming with magic robots? (The kids agree)

One would hope the Star Tribune realizes the need for some slightly more sophisticated data analysis to overcome their impending problems. Although the very fact the Reader's Representative chose that quote, and that one alone, as an example of the feedback received doesn't bode well for their understanding of the problem.

Or perhaps the entire exercise of shipping a vanload of Star Tribune editors to Anoka county to eat and see what the common folk do is just another marketing gimmick, the kind of which they are crediting their past record of success to.

In case they are looking for substantive, specific feedback, I'll give them one nugget of gold. Get a Reader's Representative who doesn't devote space in every column to throwing bouquets to her colleagues. You know, her colleagues - the reporters and editors, those folks she's supposed to be skeptical about, even critical of, when a reader lodges a legitimate complaint.

From this same column about reaching out and better understanding the readers, here's the Reader's Representative getting out her sorrowful violin to help us better understand who the editors are:

I watch them start the day early and end it late, booked solid with meetings and more meetings about the day's news, personnel issues and all the time-devouring tasks of management. Many days they are lucky just to grab a sandwich at their desks and spend time with their families at day's end.

And this, revealing the real objective of the focus group in Anoka County:

Readers were meeting people they had thought of as "the media" and getting to know them as moms and dads, coaches and volunteers, people who care about their kids and their communities -- just like the Anoka County residents.

If I was sitting through that torturous ordeal, I'd be tempted to unleash this edited part of the Alec Baldwin speech from Glengarry Glen Ross:

Nice guy? I don't give a sh*t. Good father. F*ck you, go home and play with your kids. You want to work here, [start writing more intelligent and fair minded editorials]. You think this is abuse? You think this is abuse, you c*ck-sucker. You can't take this, how can you take the abuse you get on [Fraters Libertas, Shot in the Dark, and Powerline]. If you don't like it, leave.

But, if imperiously patronizing the customers and attempting to guilt trip them into accepting a substandard product because the producers have kids and "care" about the community is the way to business success, the Star Tribune has a long and glorious future ahead of it. For a monopoly, I'm sure it has always worked in the past.
.