Fraters Libertas

The Prognosticators

The Prognosticators by Dave Thompson

There are many reasons that “news” coverage has gone from reporting of facts and scholarly analysis to a story line followed by hours of combative dissection. I am not naiive enough to believe that this phenomenon was first experienced in the late 20th Century. As pointed out in the book of Ecclesiastes, when it comes to men’s nature, there is nothing new under the sun.

However, our nature is able to manifest itself more completely when offered a virtually unlimited outlet. Such is the situation with the media today. No longer do we have three major networks and a handful of influential newspapers. Rather, we have access to around the clock cable news coverage on several networks. We are able to sit in our recliner with a laptop and read just about any newspaper in the country with the click of a mouse. Political chatter on radio has expanded dramatically over the last fifteen years.

The proliferation of information has been, on balance, a positive development. You can almost feel the major television networks, the New York Times and the Washington Post losing respect and influence. The Internet and inexpensive access to bandwidth have combined to create an environment in which anyone has a chance to get articles published.

Unfortunately it is impossible to have expansion of input and freedom of expression without expanded input from irresponsible individuals. Irresponsibility has reached world-class proportion in the area of predicting the future. I can understand why. There is a finite number of ways to describe history. But possibilities for the future are virtually limitless.

Unfortunately, those who stake their reputations on soothsaying must sometimes revise recent history in order to support their predictions. In most of life’s endeavors this is not critical. In war it can be a matter of life and death.

I spent March 23, 2003 through March 30, 2003 on vacation in Arizona. Ordinarily I am in touch with the news throughout the day everyday. I took a break from this regimen while away. Upon my re-entry into the news atmosphere I quickly learned that things had been going quite badly for the coalition. Or at least that is what was being reported. Between Sunday March 30 and Thursday, April 3 something miraculous happened: the coalition forces emerged from a Viet Nam-like “quagmire” to control of much of Baghdad, including the Baghdad International (f/k/a Saddam International) Airport. By the time of this writing (April 5) everyone in the media has come around to acknowledge the coalition’s dominance and the discussion is now centered on post-Saddam Iraq.

I am convinced that most of the grim reports of late March were not based in fact. Rather, they were the work of people who had a vested interest in validating an earlier grim forecast.

It is now well known that a critical part of the coalition strategy is to demoralize the enemy. Those who reported “news” that created false optimism in the enemy may have given them the resolve necessary to carry on one more day.

I do not suggest that the actions of these folks were treasonous. Our commitment to freedom of the press requires that we absorb the cost of this cherished right. However, I sincerely hope that some of these people are forced to come to grips with the damage they may have done.


Editor's Note: The Dave Thompson Show can be heard each Saturday and Sunday from noon to 3:00 PM on KSTP-AM 1500