Friday, November 15, 2002

Paranoia Running Deep

Right after the terrorist attacks in September 2001 most Americans braced themselves (and were told to expect) additional incidents in the US in the coming days and months. Thankfully, with a exceptions (the failed shoe bomber and while tragic, the relatively sporadic and low casualty rate shooting incidents), this did not occur. But I do recall most of us engaged in constructive speculation as to what might be the next target and what were our most vulnerable assets. My thinking was along the same lines as others -- nuclear power plants, commercial shipping ports, and cities containing entrenched sleeper cells.

Per ususal, my subconscious was also working out the problem and I still remember having a dream last Fall about the Space Shuttle being brought down out of the sky by a terrorist missile. It was greatly disturbing (a feeling that endured well into my waking hours the next day), not only in its practical ramifications but also in its symbolism. The space program, the ultimate projection of the American ideals of achievement and discovery and embrace of the future, the culmination of our entire educational system, the end product of the wealth which could only be consistently created through our capitalist-democratic system. And it could all be wrecked by a couple of jackasses in a rented pontoon boat with an Army surplus Stinger missile. A horribly perfect example of asymmetric warfare.

I'm not sure how big a threat this really is and I've mostly rationalized the potential away. Presumably the security measures taken for a NASA mission are extreme. And practically speaking, it seems unlikely that a tactical field weapon would have the ability to bring down a rocket shooting straight up through the sky at escape velocity. But, in the context of the failed governmental protections provided on September 11 and given the psychotic focus and dedication of the adherents to radical Islam, at the very least, such an attempt would have to be included in the realm of possibility.

Which makes three reports coming out today vaguely unsettling. First, this morning we get a warning from the FBI about the potential for "spectacular" Al Queda attacks that meet several criteria, including "high symbolic value" and "maximum psychological trauma" and that the highest priority targets include the aviation sector as well as national landmarks (among others).

Then tonight we get the report that NASA is delaying the launch of the Space Shuttle Endeavor (which was originally to go off this past Monday) until Nov. 22 at the earliest. The causes of the delay are being reported as a mechanical problem with the astronauts' oxygen supply and now an accident that occurred with the robotic arm during repair of the original problem. And now Boeing has announced it also has to delay launching its new Delta IV rocket (due to mechanical difficulties). This launch is rescheduled for November 22 at Cape Canaveral (which is also the site of the Space Shuttle launches).

Obviously, there's no reason to necessarily disbelieve the official reports on these incidents (space missions have a long history of these types of delays and the Delta IV specifically has already experienced numerous delays, stretching back months) and I have no empirical evidence of anything suspicious. All I have are the coincidental timing of these stories and my own haunted dreams. These along with a quarter will buy you a newspaper, unless you live in Minneapolis--where you'll get absolutely nothing for those inputs.

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