Heavy Cloud But No Rain

Because every other half-arsed wannabee wonk is doing it, here's the way I see things going down today:

Minnesota Congressional Races

District One: Gil Gutknecht (GOP) Tim Walz (DFL)
A much closer race than had been expected. I see the First District voters giving ol' Gil a break and returning him to office by the slimmest of margins.

District Two: John Kline (GOP) Colleen Rowley (DFL)
Agent Rowley's campaign has been largely clueless and Kline should win with a comfortable 10% margin.

District Three: Jim Ramstad (GOP) Wendy Wilde (DFL)
For some reason the transition from Air America radio host to suburban soccer mom just hasn't worked for Wilde. Ramstad in a laugher.

District Four: Obi Sium (GOP) Betty McCollum (DFL)
Obi has a great story and deserves a better fate, but the demographics of the district dictate an easy win for McCollum.

District Five: Alan Fine (GOP) Keith Ellison (DFL) Tammy Lee (IND)
Nothing I've seen so far gives me reason to hope that Ellison won't be my representative, although it will be far from a mandate. Let's say Ellison 45%, Fine 30%, and Lee 22%.

District Six: Michele Bachmann (GOP) Patty Wetterling (DFL)
Easily one of the most bitterly fought, hotly contested Congressional races that Minnesota has seen in recent years. The polls have been all over the place on this race, but I have to think that the combination of Bachmann's tireless campaigning and the makeup of the district will give Michele the edge. Four points or so.

District Seven: Michael J. Barrett (GOP) Colin Peterson (DFL)
Easily one of the least talked about Congressional races ever. Peterson will win with Fidel Castro-like numbers.

District Eight: Rod Grams (GOP) James Oberstar (DFL)
The only time in the last thirty-two years that Oberstar has had to work as hard or sweat as much as he has during this campaign was during his many taxpayer financed biking junkets. I have yet to see a poll on this race, but, despite a stellar effort by Rod Grams, I can't imagine that Oberstar will lose in a year with so much going for the Dems.

What this means is that the eight Minnesota seats will continue to be split evenly between the Republicans and Democrats. A wash essentially.

Unlike Saint Paul, I don't have a lot of free time to lay on my couch shirtless, eating a block of cheese and watching C-Span until the wee hours of the night. So I haven't been able to individually analyze each of the 435 races. But my instinct says that the Democrats will have just enough mo' left to get over the top and gain control of the House. Barely. When the dust clears, they'll hold 219 seats to the GOP's 216.

Minnesota Senate Race

Are we really going to fill Mark Dayton's seat with a person even less qualified to be a Senator? I'm afraid the answer is yes. Although she won't win by the absurd margins being predicted in the Strib's Minnesota Poll, Amy "Longer Hospital Stays" Klobuchar will be our next United States Senator with a seven or eight point advantage over Mark Kennedy.

Minnesota Statewide Offices

State Auditor: Pat Anderson (GOP) Rebecca Otto (DFL)
This watchdog not only has bark, she has bite. Unless she's swamped by a tide of heavy DFL turnout, Pat Anderson should hold on. As unbelievable as it may seem, a decent number of people actually rely on the Star Tribune endorsements to help guide their voting decisions. It's expected that the Dem will get the endorsement, so in those rare cases when the Strib endorses a Republican, as it did with Anderson, it can make a difference.

Secretary of State: Mary Kiffmeyer (GOP) Mark Ritchie (DFL)
Kiffmeyer has been the subject of a great deal of criticism in the last two years, most of it unwarranted. I'm afraid that in a year where things appear to be lining up well for the DFL, enough of it will stick to send Kiffmeyer to defeat. The one factor in her favor is that she's a woman running against a man, which seems to be an advantage in Minnesota.

Attorney General: Jeff Johnson (GOP) Lori Swanson (DFL)
Nowhere is the woman versus man advantage more noticeable than in this race. In a world of logic and reason, Johnson would have a ten point lead. Unfortunately, he's running in Minnesota where a woman with the last name of Swanson is an almost unbeatable combination. Someone should do a study on how last names and gender influence elections in Minnesota, because it's truly bizarre. This year, Johnson is probably the best GOP candidate and has run the best campaign of any of the Republicans seeking state wide office. He deserves to win and it's a crying shame that he probably won't.

Pardon me a moment of bluntness if you will. Ladies of Minnesota, you need to quit voting for candidates who share your gynecology and start voting for those who share your ideology.

Governor: Tim Pawlenty (GOP) Mike Hatch (DFL)
Last week, I was quite pessimistic about Pawlenty's prospects. Then, Judy Dutcher exposed her ignorance and Mike Hatch exposed his real self after successfully concealing it for most of the campaign. I hope that will prove to be enough to get Pawlenty through, although I am still far from confident. It could be very late into the night or early Wednesday before we know who wins the statehouse. If I had to guess, I'd say that T-Paw will prevail, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

This is a race that Pawlenty should have been able to win without breaking a sweat. And maybe that was the problem, since he's run what has for the most part been a weak, ineffectual campaign.

After he alienated some of the base with his cigarette tax fee and support for taxpayer funded stadiums, he should have made a concentrated effort to reach out to conservatives early in the campaign and reestablish his cred. Instead, he ran even more to the middle while all but ignoring the concerns of conservatives. I believe that Tim Pawlenty is actually much more of a conservative than many people give him credit for. Unfortunately, he hasn't done enough anything to demonstrate it of late. If he does lose this race--and I fear that it's a very real possibility--he will have no one to blame but himself. And whomever's been advising him for the last year or so.

While it will by no means be a banner day for the GOP in Minnesota, it likely won't be a complete disaster either (assuming that Pawlenty pulls it out). You can leave your umbrella at home, but you'd better wear a jacket.