Lies, Damn Lies, & Exit Polls
Rick has posted a paper, A Critical Review of "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" at Stones Cry Out:
Dr. Steven F. Freeman, visiting University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) professor is not an "expert" on exit polls or the 2004 Presidential exit poll discrepancies as suggested by this UPenn press release. In fact, his paper, The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy, is highly flawed. His argument that "in general, exit poll data are sound" fails having suppressed evidence and the conclusion that "it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in" Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania was not substantiated statistically. Nevertheless, Dr. Freeman is right in concluding that explanations of the discrepancy to date are inadequate and Edison/Mitofsky should address the concerns of US Count Votes in subsequent analysis of their data.
Dr. Freeman wrote a book based on his research that is due out in a couple of months and has a couple of working papers in progress that are not yet available for public review. If The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy is any indicator of the quality of research included in these forthcoming works, I suggest that his publishers take a closer look at the manuscripts.
Read the whole thing.
No comments:
Post a Comment