I'm The A-Hole?

After seeing this article on gas prices in today's Wall Street Journal, I'm starting to wonder if I'm the one missing something. Yesterday, I made note of a story on summer gas prices that was headlined "Further surge in gas prices expected." It turns out that the predicted average price of a gallon for the summer is actually lower than the average price at the pump last week, which lead me to question whether gas prices were really going to "surge."

The story by John J. Fialka in the WSJ is headlined:

Gas Prices to Jump This Summer

With the sub-heading:

Government Predicts 25-Cent-Per-Gallon Rise And Bigger Spikes in Texas, Much of East Coast

From the headline and sub-header alone, I would surmise that gas prices are predicted to rise by twenty-five cents a gallon this summer over what they are currently at. But again, when you read the story, that's not what you find:

Gas prices this summer will be at least 25 cents more per gallon than last summer's steep prices, averaging $2.62 a gallon between April 1 and Sept. 30, the Energy Department predicted. Some populous parts of the country, including big cities in Texas and parts of the middle and upper East Coast, could see "unexpected supply disruptions" that will drive prices even higher.

Gasoline prices have already risen in recent weeks. The price for a gallon of regular in the Dallas suburb of Allen, Texas, has shot up almost 50 cents since February. A few days ago, a run on the area's gasoline wholesalers left 60 stations without gas for a day. The national average has crept up to $2.68 in the past week and is expected to reach $2.73 in May.

So gas prices this summer are predicted to be twenty-five cents a gallon higher than last summer. Does that justify the headline? Not in my mind.

UPDATE--Paul e-mails to add:

Your post on the gas price (lack of) surges is relevant to me, as in my product reporting career I have faced this issue many times. There really isn't a right answer and you are certainly correct to point out that the headlines are flawed.

In reporting any product with cyclical pricing, you need to compare to the previous year, rather than the previous month. Gasoline is one such product. Due to environmental requirements, the content of gasoline differs in July from what is required in March (at least in most northern states).

If environmental regulation requires a "winter" additive between the months of November and March, as it does in Minnesota, then that gasoline would have a different pump price than a similar gasoline without that additive. If the additive costs $0.05 per gallon, one could reasonably expect that gasoline pump prices would fall by that amount when the additive is no longer required. However, the pump price reduction wouldn't have anything to do with a change in underlying petrolium prices.

At the same time, if I'm a customer, what I'm buying feels like the same thing, regardless of what month it is. The price change to me is real and since the gas is the underlying factor I associate it with the price changes.

Therefore, you are correct in your assessment that the headlines were poorly written. I would suggest something like, "Summer gas prices surge from last year's rates."