Wanna Bet?

A recent poll that shows President Bush losing to an "unnamed Democrat" has left of center bloggers crowing. Tony Pierce sees the poll as proof that Bush really didn't win the 2000 election and Jeff Fecke at Blog of the Moderate Left is ready to get the shovel out and start throwing dirt on the coffin of the Bush presidency:

When a candidate falls below fifty percent in a generic re-elect poll, he is in critical jeopardy.

When he falls behind the generic opponent, turn the lights out; he's done.

Not so fast fellas. A few points need to be made:

1. As far as I know this is the only such poll so far that has shown Bush losing a hypothetical election and this is not one conducted by one of the "major" pollsters either. Looking at individual polls can give you results all over the board. Let's see if this result is duplicated in other polls before we give it too much credence.

2. Despite Jeff Fecke's assertion that losing to a generic opponent is a particularly bad sign, in reality incumbents almost always perform worse against an unnamed opponent. With threats of war looming and the economy soft it's not surprising that voters would be somewhat negative on Bush. But an "unnamed Democrat" doesn't really conjure up many specific negatives. Once a real name is put in place voters have a record and image to associate with and negatives will climb accordingly for that candidate.

3. It really doesn't mean anything. A poll conducted in October 2001 might have shown Bush beating an unnamed Democrat by thirty points. Now that poll means nothing. And in November 2004 this poll will mean nothing as well. Bush is certainly not "done" at this point in time and Jeff Fecke might not want to reach for that light switch just yet.

Since both of these gentlemen appear quite confident that Bush is headed towards defeat in 2004 I propose a small wager. Say $50 each (Tony should be able to easily afford it with all those car donations he's hauling in). I'll take Bush and they can have the Democrat to be named later.

Deal?