It All Depends What You Mean By Bailing
Andrew Sullivan claims that independent voters are "bailing" on President Bush after the war in Iraq and concludes that it is due to the President's domestic policies which Sullivan says do little to warm the hearts of independents. Now when I hear the word "bailing" used in this context I imagine a mass exodus of supporters leaving Bush. However, if you examine the actual poll results it's not all that clear cut.
Keeping in mind that the poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5% we see that Bush's support has indeed slipped among independents. An earlier poll conducted in early-mid April had 31% of independents saying that they would "definitely reelect Bush" while in the most recent poll only 25% of independents responded similarly. A 6% drop is nothing to sneeze at but considering the 2.5% margin of error is it a sign of "bailing"?
If you continue to look at the results you see that the number of independents who would "consider someone else" for president rose from 32% to 40%, again not a good sign for Bush. But interestingly whereas 28% of independents would "definitely vote for someone else" in the previous poll this time around only 25% would. It would appear as if the independent supporters that Bush has lost haven't found other candidates to support yet and are aren't even committed to not voting for Bush, they're just "considering" other candidates.
The poll results clearly show that Bush's support among independents has eroded since the war ended. And it is something that his administration should be concerned about. But is "bailing" really the best way to describe it?
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