Fraters Libertas

Keep A Firm Hand On The Helm

Last night on O'Reilly Dick Morris spoke of the President's "plummeting" poll numbers and suggested that Hillary may decide to run in 2004 after all now that Bush appears so vulnerable. Morris is not alone in his doom and gloom assessment and Bush supporters who were brimming with confidence only two months ago are today bemoaning the recent turn of events and openly worrying about his reelection chances. Heck, even the usually rock solid guys over at Power Line seem to be getting nervous.

It's time to take a deep breathe and relax. Yes the recent flap over the Niger uranium intelligence, the lack of WMD discoveries, and the continuing casualties in Iraq have combined to hurt the President's approval numbers. And the administration's reaction to events of late has been far from perfect. There's been too much confusion and finger pointing and not enough efforts to counter the mounting criticism. Hoping it will all just go away isn't going to work.

But let's not overstate the damage. Recent polls indicate that the President's support has taken a hit and that is not welcome news. But how bad is it? According to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll published yesterday Bush's approval rating is now at 59%. While that is down from the over 70% approval rating he enjoyed in immediate the aftermath of the war it ain't all that bad either.

The assumption that the President's support will continue to decline at the same pace in the future is faulty. When the overall number of people supporting Bush shrinks, the base of his support actually becomes stronger. Hmmm? When you've got seventy some percent of the people supporting you it doesn't actually take much to knock that number down. I'd guess that anywhere between fifteen and twenty percent of people are easily influenced by events and their support swings back and forth depending on whether the news of the day is good or bad. After Baghdad fell they supported Bush. Now the news is not so positive and they bail. But those who still support Bush now are more steadfast and it will take a lot more than what we've seen in the last two weeks to get them to change their views. I don't know what the "bottom" level of Bush's support is but I guess we're not that far from it and it's solid. Dick Morris spoke of Hillary reconsidering if Bush's numbers get below fifty percent. Unless things get a whole lot worse that is not going to happen.

All presidencies have rough patches, peaks and valleys in their approval ratings. If this July of '04 I'd be worried. But a lot can happen in the next year. The capture or death of Saddam ("It's nice and warm down here Dad") leading to a stabilization in Iraq, another terrorist attack on the United States, or even an unimaginably horrific war with North Korea and most of that 20% would be back in a heart beat. And just because Bush has lost support does not mean that Democrats have gained it. Right now it's easy for the potential Dem contenders to attack Bush without having to answer the tough questions about what they would have done to make the country safer. That won't be the case in 2004.

And keep in mind that we're in the middle of summer. While the media and political classes are paying rapt attention to ongoing events many regular Americans are not all that interested. If you're going to have a "scandal" as some in the media have dubbed it, this is probably the best time of year for it.

So while this is certainly not the high point of the Bush administration it is also not time to start writing its obituary. Conservatives especially should have enough sense and fortitude to avoid the rush to make sweeping predictions about the 2004 election based on recent events and to not succumb to the emotionally charged rhetoric that feeds the frenzy.

Steady on boys. We need to weather the storm, not abandon the ship.