Tuesday, August 05, 2003

The Pink Triangle Wedge?

In the 2000 election only 10% of African-American voters pulled the lever (or punched the chad) for Bush. Obviously these are dismal numbers which the Bush team would certainly love to improve upon come 2004.

The recent brouhaha over gay marriage may be the issue they use to try to chip away at what has become a Democratic stranglehold on the black vote. A Gallup Poll conducted on July 25-27 shows that support for legalized homosexual relations among blacks has dropped to 35%. While most African-Americans have embraced the broad positions of the Democratic party, when it comes to social issues they are often more conservative. In particular they aren't too crazy about being allied with the very outspoken gay rights movement and its leaders.

Will this one issue be enough to get large numbers of black voters to cross over and vote for Bush in 2004? Probably not. But even if only a small percentage do it will weaken the base of core support for the eventual Democratic candidate, and whoever that turns out to be will very likely be unable to afford any slippage if he hopes to have a chance to upset Bush.

Look for the Republicans to try to get as much play out of gay marriage for as long as they can.

No comments:

Post a Comment