In Sunday's New York Times sports section, Alan Schwarz discussed a concept known the Pythagorean standings for baseball. It's a way to predict a team's wining percentage based on the number of runs it scores vs. the number of runs it allows its opponents to score.
It's a simple formula, but according to Schwarz, it's proven to be a reasonably accurate forecaster of a team's performance over an entire season. Allowing the baseball fan some level of certainty with regard to the maddeningly complex roller coaster of a baseball season is good news. The bad news is the Twins may be destined for a fall in the AL Central this season. According to Schwarz:
The power of the formula emerges in comparing a team's expected victories to its actual victories. A perfect example comes from this year's American League Central race, where on Thursday the White Sox led the Twins by one game atop the standing. The Sox had scored 431 total runs and given up 357, translating to a .595 Pythagorean winning percentage and a 44-30 record - suggesting that Chicago's 41-33 real-life record was three victories lower than what its run differential deserved, and that better times are probably ahead.
Meanwhile, the Twins had managed their 41-35 record despite being outscored on the season, 351-372, meaning their luck is bound to run out. (Much of this does derive from happenstance, how team scoring fluctuates randomly within the little nine-inning chunks we call games, and tends to even out over the course of a full season.)
With this weekend's series win in Arizona, the Twins are back tied for first place. But with their lack of hitting this season and inconsistent starting pitching, their hold at the top has always felt shaky to me. According to Schwarz (in a print edition insert) the Twins record is 5 games better than their performance would dictate and unfortunately that feels about right. Looks like we'll need to rely on another White Sox implosion to win the division again this year. Since the White Sox have a perfect 100% record of doing just that the past two years, maybe the odds are still in our favor.
FYI - Twins vs. Kansas City Royals, tonight 7:10 PM at the Metrodome. It is also Armed Forces Appreciation Day. Current and former military personnel get half price tickets, Gov. Pawlenty will throw out the first ball and receive a flag from a Minnesota National Guard unit just returned from Iraq, and the Twins will give away G.I. Joe dolls to the first 5,000 kids in attendance.
That last aspect has caused some controversy among local anti-war agitators, who are demanding the Twins cancel the promotion. To their credit, the Twins won't, and things are on for tonight.
Lt. Col. (Ret.) Joe Repya of the Liberate Iraq sign campaign from last fall (and fresh off the Kerry Waffle Breakfast in Duluth) called into NARN on Saturday and mentioned he would be on hand with his supporters to counter any on-site protests from the usual suspects. So if you're going to the game and want to say "hi" look out for the motley crew of people shouting about "Nazis" and "Hitler" and "lies". The well-behaved, dignified group across from them will be Joe's group.
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