Bellwethers?

My wife's parents have just told her that they plan to vote for President Bush come November. This may not mean anything at all, but I take it as a good sign. Although both of them live very conservative lives and her Dad is a Korean war vet, they are not reliable Republican voters.

They share a populist streak, which is very common here in the Upper Midwest (and the subject of much longer future post). This streak often manifests itself in a distrust of those in power, and a strong dose of suspicion of anyone with wealth. A lot of it is based on class envy and the belief that those at the top did not really earn their place there. There is also a tendency to embrace conspiracy theories.

Which explains why they voted for Jesse Ventura in 1998. In 2000 they decided that they could not vote for either Bush or Gore. I think they went for Buchanan, but they could have gone for Nader as well. It didn't really matter who they were voting for; it was a protest vote against the two major parties.

Since then they have been fairly muted in their political views. They strongly supported the President after 9/11, but haven't been as keen on Bush since then. I do suspect my father-in-law loathes John Kerry. However, until today, we were unsure how they would vote this year, and thought that there was a decent chance they would go the way of a third party candidate once again.

As I mentioned earlier, this may signify nothing at all in larger terms for the election. But, coming on top of what was a very bad month for Kerry and a very good week for the President, it is yet another indication (micro) that, for now at least, things seem to be going Bush's way.