Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Another Tet? I Wish

Instapundit has an excellent e-mail from a reader on why the recent attacks in Iraq in no way resemble the 1968 Tet Offensive in Vietnam. The only point I would add is that during Tet, which was just about at the height of US military strength in South Vietnam, Viet Cong sappers managed to infiltrate the heavily guarded US embassy in Saigon and hold parts of the compound for hours before finally being evicted in vicious fighting. That was a significant assault on a symbolic target, intended to demonstrate that nothing was really secure. Firing a dozen rockets at the al Rasheed Hotel and fleeing after you've been surprised by unarmed Iraqi police is not in the same ball park.

And as tough as it would be to bear the casualties (both civilian and military), the short term chaos that would result, and the psychological trauma sure to be made worse by the media, it probably would be a good thing for the US if the Islamist/Baathist elements in Iraq were to attempt a Tet-like offensive. I doubt if they could mount anything close to the scale of Tet, but if they would "come out" into the open and engage coalition forces it would provide the opportunity to destroy them. Right now the frustration for the coalition forces is that they're facing remote controlled bombs, mines, and hit and run mortar, RPG, and small arms attacks, which allow them little chance to respond effectively. Combined with what appears to be poor intelligence support on the ground, this looks like it could be a low level conflict that lasts for years. Not unlike Israel's experience in Southern Lebanon. Talk about a long hard slog.

The media wants to make this a Tet so they have a point of reference to yak about. I would like to see the Islamists/Baathists attempt a real "Tet" so we have a better point of reference to kill the bastards. Unfortunately, I don't see them making that mistake. Slog on.

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