Black and White and Red All Over

Rick from Eagan analyzes Nick Coleman's claims of a Democratic tomorrow in the suburbs:

In Nick Coleman's Sunday column he made the following statement:

It wasn't just Edina that turned blue, Red. So did Mendota Heights, Eagan (the governor's home) and many other areas where moderate Minnesotans -- of all political stripes -- who care deeply about education, health care, the environment and the social safety net decided they did not want to be in Alabama.

I don't know about Edina or Mendota Heights, but being that I live in Eagan I was rather shocked at this statement, so I rushed to the Secretary of State site to find out if it were so.

It was true! Eagan went for Kerry by a margin of 578 votes out of 37,077 cast.

It was also not true. John Kline (GOP) took Eagan with 2,061 more votes than DFL'er Teresa Daly and IP'er Doug Williams combined, and won 17 of 21 precincts: Kline-51.1%, Daly-42.5%, Williams-3%, No Preference-3.4%.

Furthermore, GOP Minnesota house candidates got 2,405 more votes than DFL candidates, and won 15 of 21 precincts: GOP-50.0%, DFL-43.6%, No Preference-6%.

So it seems that Mr. Coleman is way off when he says that Eagan is now a blue city.

How then did Kerry carry Eagan? At least 926 Kline supporters failed support Bush's re-election. If they had stuck to the ticket, Bush would have won Eagan by 378 votes.

Kerry also benefited from voters who only voted for him, and not for Congress or the state house candidates. My math here is rather complicated, but the estimate is between 1,129 and 2,010 ballots choosing Kerry and no other selections. 1,000 to 2,000 disembodied Kerry votes out of 37,000 cast!

Doesn't it strike you as odd, that between 1,000 and 2,000 Kerry voters (3-5%) in this prosperous suburb had no preference for congress or the Minnesota house? As Drudge would say, "Developing ..."

It does strike us as odd. But our eyes glazed over as soon as Rick mentioned his math was complicated, so we are unable to personally verify his cipherin' as correct.

I think it is plausible that at least a portion of the 3-5% Kerry voters were honest enough to admit they didn't know enough about a state congressional race, so they did the right thing and refused to vote on it. And part of that 3-5% are probably overvotes, those who mistakenly voted twice in that race and the tabulation machine rightfully disenfranchised them on account of mental deficiency.

But none of that disproves Rick's thesis - that Nick Coleman is wrong about the Blue hue of Eagan. It's mostly still Red, but with just enough ignorance (3-5%) to allow the Democrats to win an occasional election there.